Louis Wong Commentary

Author

黃瑋傑先生(Louis Wong)
輝立証券董事

見證過去三十多年香港股市每一個牛市和熊市,可謂實戰經驗豐富。現為香港多份財經報章雜誌專欄作家,並為電視台及電台擔任客席主持。個人著作有〈炒得精叻〉、〈投資先知〉及〈股市是平的〉,並獲『中金在線』選為『2010年最受歡迎的港股分析師』。
Phone:
2277 6666

達到最小量度下跌目標

Monday, September 21, 2026 Views223

港股上周呈現震盪下行、並在低位展開反彈的走勢,恆指在上周四見到24357點的階段新低後,周五回升至24,750點收市,全周累跌54點或0.2%,連跌兩周;國指累計下跌0.25%;科指全周漲近2%。市場預期美國可能將新關稅的宣布推遲至9月24日中美元首會晤之後,地緣政治壓力短暫緩和,是周五在低位出現反彈的催化劑。同時,南向資金連續9個交易日淨流入,累計流入約309.2億港元,為港股提供了扎實的支撐:南向成交已佔恒指總成交的四成以上。

 

滬深股市上周呈現寬幅震盪、先抑後揚的修復走勢,上證指數成功奪回3,900點大關,上周五收報 3,911點,全周上漲0.6%;深證成指收報 13,640點,周漲1.3%;創業板指周漲1.5%,收報 3,372點。科創50指數表現更為強勁,全周大漲 6.4%。周五當天兩市合計成交額顯著放量至 2.08萬億元人民幣。中國國家統計局發布了「三頭馬車」數據,反映出「供強需弱」、內需疲軟的結構性矛盾依舊突出。其中,8月規模以上工業增加值按年實際增長5.2%,增速比7月加快0.7個百分點,優於市場預期的4.8%升幅,主要受海外強勁出口帶動。8月社會消費品零售總額按年增長0.4%,低於市場預期升0.8%,增速較7月再放緩 0.2 個百分點,按月甚至微跌 0.13%。首八個月全國固定資產投資按年下降7.2%,創下近年來最大跌幅,主要受到房地產拖累;市場預期跌7.1%。首八個月全國房地產開發投資同比下降19.9%,降幅較1—7月份進一步擴大,但略勝市場預期的下跌20.1%。另外,中國人民銀行發布的金融統計數據顯示,8月人民幣貸款僅增加600億元,遠低於市場預期的4000億元,反映信貸需求依然偏弱。8月社會融資規模增加 1.66 萬億元略遜於預期,前8個月累計 23.91 萬億元,同比少增 2.64 萬億元顯示企業更傾向於通過發行低息企業債券(前8個月企業債券同比多增1.23萬億元)來置換高息銀行貸款,這雖然拉低了貸款數據,但大幅降低了企業的實際融資成本。

 

美股上周呈現劇烈波動,科技板塊展現出極強的防禦韌性。 標普500指數全周僅微跌0.1%;納指全周累計上漲 0.7%;而受高利率壓制的道瓊斯工業平均指數與羅素2000小微股指數全周分別下跌 1.7% 和 1.5%美聯儲公開市場委員會(FOMC)以 12-0 的壓倒性投票宣布加息25個基點,將基準利率推升至 3.75%–4.00% 區間。點陣圖顯示年內可能還有一次加息,美國10年期國債收益率強勢突破 5.0% 大關,創下近二十年新高。展望本周,市場焦點將轉移至地緣政治,包括紐約聯合國大會、中美元首會晤和中東局勢發展。

 

說回港股,隨著雙節(中秋、國慶)臨近,市場整體交投情緒或自周中起逐步轉入節前觀望模式。技術上,恆指上周四最低見到24357點,已達到最小量度下跌目標24400及接近0.5黃金比率調整目標24353點,並似形成個𡷊形底,有望繼續反彈,上試10天線(24941點)以至100天線(25102點)。

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