Author

黃瑋傑先生(Louis Wong)
輝立証券董事
見證過去三十多年香港股市每一個牛市和熊市，可謂實戰經驗豐富。現為香港多份財經報章雜誌專欄作家，並為電視台及電台擔任客席主持。個人著作有〈炒得精叻〉、〈投資先知〉及〈股市是平的〉，並獲『中金在線』選為『2010年最受歡迎的港股分析師』。
Phone:
2277 6666
Email:
research@phillip.com.hk

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Monday, October 12, 2026

150

港股上周呈現先抑後揚走勢，恒生指數曾失守24000點關口，上周四見到23737點的近三個月低位，周五在外圍氣氛改善下強勢反彈425點，收報24,211點，全周累計回升約239點或1%，中止連跌四周的頹勢。國指和科指分別累升1.5%及近1%。

滬深股市上周只有兩個交易日，三大指數在國慶黃金周長假期後復市首日顯著下跌，深成指和創業板指齊齊創出去年11月底以來逾十個月低。周五三大指數呈現反彈，但全周計上證指數仍下跌0.7%，並連跌三周；深成指跌幅约1.9%，創業板指跌達到2.9%。展望本周，市場將聚焦中國9月CPI、PPI及進出口數據。9月CPI預測為1.0%，較8月的0.8%溫和回升，但仍處於偏低水平，主要支撐來自食品價格季節性回升、能源價格因國際油價上行而抬升，以及消費電子等部分工業品的支撐。 9月PPI預測在4.4%–4.5%，較8月的3.8%進一步加快，有望創年內新高，主要驅動力是能源鏈價格上行。經濟數據以外，市場將關注內需復甦節奏與政策落地效果。同時，三季報披露期亦將臨近。短期內，市場較大機會延續震盪整理與結構性輪動格局，寬基指數有望逐步企穩，但上行空間取決於成交量能否持續放大以及宏觀數據能否超預期。

美股上周反覆靠穩，整體市場在高債息與油價壓力下仍展現韌性，三大指數均錄得周線升幅，並接近歷史高位。標普500指數收報全周累升約1.2%；道指全周升約0.9%；納指收報全周升約0.6%，連續第四周上升。羅素2000指數表現相對遜色，全周大致持平。特朗普表示中期選舉前不會對伊朗動武，短暫緩解地緣緊張。科技與半導體受Open AI營收疑慮影響而表現分化。

本周市場焦點將轉向第三季業績季正式開鑼與關鍵通脹數據。周一為哥倫布日，股票市場開市但債券市場休市，成交可能偏淡。周二起大型銀行率先公布業績，包括JPMorgan、Goldman Sachs、Wells Fargo、Citigroup等，市場預期標普500成分股第三季整體盈利增長約30%，銀行業績將反映高利率與能源成本對盈利的影響。周三將公布9月CPI，預期同比升3.6%、環比升0.6%，核心CPI同比升2.4%-2.5%。通脹數據將影響聯儲局後續政策路徑，市場目前預期本月暫停加息的概率接近83%。同時還有更多銀行業績（Bank of America、Morgan Stanley）。另外，還有褐皮書。此外，ASML與台積電等半導體公司業績亦將陸續公布，對AI需求與資本開支預期有重要指引。

說回港股，恆指創出23737點的近三個個月低位後展開反彈，重越24000點，料可收復10天線，該均線已降至24220點附近。若守穩10天線，下一步可望挑戰上周二反彈高位24354點以及20天線（24545點）。

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