Market Brief

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馮兆山先生(Michael Fung)


華晨中國 (1114.HK) 去年銷售量增長強勁 現價見投資價值

Wednesday, March 20, 2019 Views1661

# 全年銷量符合預期


華晨寶馬於2018年的全年總銷量上升20.3% 至 46萬5千輛, 逹到管理層早前訂下的銷售目標.


銷量貢獻最大的型號是寶馬 3 系和 5 系車款, 年銷量分別同比增長 8.8% 至 13萬5千輛; 以及同比增長20.7% 至14萬6千輛.


受益於消費升級的豪華車市場, 市場預期華晨旗下的主打產品華晨寶馬於2019年度將以低雙位數增長 (市場普遍預期增長率約為 11 – 15%).


# 競爭激烈 降價促銷形勢持續


華晨寶馬為催谷銷量, 仍會採取擴大折扣率的手法.


其中, 3系 / X1 平均折扣率環比上升 1.3% / 0.2%; 華晨寶馬總平均折扣率環比略微上升 0.3% 至 12.1%, 較競爭對手奧迪及平治為高.


# 電動車TESLA 加快本地化, 料為內地豪華車市場帶來衝擊


TESLA 已經開始於上海工廠的建設, 第一期產能 25 萬輛, 最早將於2019年底前開始生產, 2020年實現量產.


市場相信, TESLA 為了符合中國消費者的期望, 其首款車型 MODEL 3 的低配版本將有較高的性價比, 定價預期為三十萬元人民幣左右 … 相信會為華晨寶馬在內的入門級豪華車廠帶來直接競爭, 未來幾年會持續侵蝕傳統豪華車的市場份額.


# 風險因素


  1. = 寶馬股權減少 25% 後, 公司估值從豪華車指標, 變成風險趨於上升的普通汽車股;

  2. = TESLA 本地化生產對寶馬的衝擊仍有待觀察.


# 1114.HK 股價於保歷加低軸 = HK$7.1附近已築了底, 若股價能突破20天移動平均線 = HK$7.71 的話, 上升動力可望進一步增強, 屆時可吼價買入;第一目標價 = HK$8.32, 第二目標價 = 2018年10月下跌裂口的頂部, HK$10. 止蝕價 = HK$7.1.




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