Market Brief

The articles are produced in Chinese only.

Author

吳袓同先生(JordanWood)
輝立証券及期貨市場經理

吳祖同現任本公司高級業務及市場經理, 策略師, 從事証券及恆指期貨交易已有二十多年,尤其在技術分析方面經驗豐富。自2002年開始每週在本欄發表期指走勢技術分析, 廣受客戶和讀者歡迎。
Phone:
3667 0601

期指走勢技術分析 19 August 2019

Monday, August 19, 2019 Views572

19 August 2019

 

上週期指開、高、低、收·分別為25728、26011、24804和25632,收市價跌251點,是連續第四周下跌,但是最近三周的每週跌幅遞次縮窄,分別是三周前的1567點、兩周前的935點和上周的251點,有跡象顯示沽售壓力開始減緩。若本周沒有新的利淡因素進入市場,可能會有反彈。同時也要看到周線圖技術指標仍未轉好,包括保利加通道寬度仍在加速拓寬, 前周%BW報16.75%,上週報17.95%,STC的18K%報12.47,5D%報29.85,指標顯示離循環週期底部時日尚遠。另一方面陰陽燭上周的下影線長達828點,燭身只有96點,說明低位有不錯的承接力,本周有可能繼續反彈,測試高一級阻力。

 

日線圖上,十八天保利加通道的寬度上週四拉到最寬報19.18%,週五開始收窄報18.90%,下跌動力開始收斂;STC的18K%上週五升穿5D%,兩者分別報13.64和11.11,有利反彈繼續。10sma今日的臨界位是25651,5sma今日臨界位是25370,5sma是短期的重要支援,收市價升穿10sma可以測試高一級阻力25830-25910,是上週四度空間圖上上方的價值區。日線圖three line break收市價轉向點在25884。一旦升穿25884收市,有望挑戰26246或20sma。下方的重要支持在25200-25300,是上周價值去的底部,一旦失守創新低的機會增加。

 

波浪分析認為:30336向下是[2]-(C)開始運行,30336>26505是(C)-A浪下跌,26505>29080是(C)-B浪上升,29080向下是(C)-C下跌,C浪的內部結構,到目前為止,至少有兩種讀法,今日以期指小時圖列出,第一選擇將C浪內部看成是1-2-3-4-5五浪結構,29080>28091是1浪下跌,28841>24804已經走完了3浪全程,4浪上升會升穿由28841開始向右的Standard Error Channel 通道上阻力,上週五已觸及尚未升穿,大概去到收復3浪跌幅的25%左右開始有阻力,之後的5浪下跌會跌破24804,很可能跌破去年十月低位24526。第二選擇將C浪內部看成是[a]-[b]-[c]三浪結構,29080>28052是[a]浪下跌,28052>28841是[b]浪上升,28841>24804走完了[c]浪全程,[c]浪內部由28841>25219>26246>24804組成一組(a)-(b)-(c)三浪結構。若果日內升穿自28841向右的Standard Error Channel,並保持在通道上方交易不再下墜,可以認為C浪已在24804找到終點。這句話也可以這樣說:升穿通道後若再次跌回通道內,很可能4浪反彈已結束,後市進入5浪下跌。若果後市發展證實C浪已經完成,是否表示(C)浪也走完了全程?那也不一定,因為(C)浪內部還可以有D浪反彈,之後還有E浪下跌,整組(C)浪結構是斜線三角形的A-B-C-D-E。所以第二選擇中,將來會升到自29080開始向右的Standard Error Channel上方,該通道目前在26500-26600附近,完成D浪上升或者是1浪上升。

 

簡單來說,本周的關鍵可以參考日線圖10sma,目前看來升穿10sma大概沒有問題,之後是否跌回10sma以下才是重點,升穿之後不再跌回去,當它是D浪上升,下一步看26500,升穿之後又跌到10sma以下,當它是5浪下跌已開始。

 

以上純屬個人意見,不構成買賣邀請,本人吳祖同為證監會持牌人,本人及本人之客戶會隨時買賣上述分析之相關產品。


 

This report is produced and is being distributed in Hong Kong by Phillip Securities Group with the Securities and Futures Commission (“SFC”) licence under Phillip Securities (HK) LTD and/ or Phillip Commodities (HK) LTD (“Phillip”). Information contained herein is based on sources that Phillip believed to be accurate. Phillip does not bear responsibility for any loss occasioned by reliance placed upon the contents hereof. The information is for informative purposes only and is not intended to or create/induce the creation of any binding legal relations. The information provided do not constitute investment advice, solicitation, purchase or sell any investment product(s). Investments are subject to investment risks including possible loss of the principal amount invested. You should refer to your Financial Advisor for investment advice based on your investment experience, financial situation, any of your particular needs and risk preference. For details of different product's risks, please visit the Risk Disclosures Statement on http://www.phillip.com.hk. Phillip (or employees) may have positions/ interests in relevant investment products. Phillip (or one of its affiliates) may from time to time provide services for, or solicit services or other business from, any company mentioned in this report. The above information is owned by Phillip and protected by copyright and intellectual property Laws. It may not be reproduced, distributed or published for any purpose without prior written consent from Phillip.
Top of Page
Contact Us
Please contact your account executive or call us now.
Research Department
Tel : (852) 2277 6846
Fax : (852) 2277 6565
Email : businessenquiry@phillip.com.hk

Enquiry & Support
Branches
The Complaint Procedures
E-Check
Login
Louis Talk
Investor Notes
Free Subscribe
Contact Us