Market Brief

The articles are produced in Chinese only.


潘文傑先生 (Tommy Poon)



Monday, September 30, 2019 Views1764

踏入下半年, 本地銀行業受到眾多內外負面因素夾擊, 包括評級機構穆迪對本地兩間大型銀行- 滙豐香港及�生銀行的外幣長期存款評級展望,由「穩定」降至「負面」; 中美貿易糾紛陰晴不定, 全球經濟蒙上陰霾, 本地政治和經濟前景不明朗, 影響影響貸款需求; 市場孳息曲線平坦不利銀行擴闊息差; 銀行資產質素有下跌風險等。


根據金管局最新半年度報告, 受非利息收入減少以及貸款減值撥備及營運開支增加影響, 2019年上半年,零售銀行整體稅前經營溢利較去年同期增長0.6%, 較2018年全年14.3%的同比增幅急速放緩。


展望下半年, 本地銀行之間傾向保持以較高存款息率爭奪新存戶和存款, 但經濟活動和貸款需求疲弱, 加上環球長息偏低, 削弱了銀行轉嫁利息成本予借款人的能力, 息差有收窄壓力 ; 銀行資產質素有轉壞風險, 銀行或會提升撥備; 而非利息收入也會受疲弱投資市場和消費者信心等因素影響。因此預期本地銀行下半年經營環境更具挑戰性, 建議投資本地銀行股前, 留意以上風險。


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