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吳袓同先生(JordanWood)
高級業務經理

吳祖同現任本公司高級業務及市場經理, 策略師, 從事証券及恆指期貨交易已有二十多年,尤其在技術分析方面經驗豐富。自2002年開始每週在本欄發表期指走勢技術分析, 廣受客戶和讀者歡迎。
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期指走勢技術分析 11 January 2021

Monday, January 11, 2021 Views1209

11 January 2021

 

2021年港股強勢開局,期指承接去年最後一周上升808點,上周再升582點,上周收報27801。周線圖各項技術指標如下:九周RSI報73.43,是2019年4月以來最高;十八周STC的18K%報92.30,5D%報88.06,中期向上循環沒有見頂;十八周保曆加通道的寬度連續十一周拉寬,%BW上週報20.79,中期上升動力仍在增加,通道上線在28182,一周上移395點,本周上線在28500-28600。周線圖各技術指標均繼續偏好,沒有絲毫轉勢跡象。

 

日線圖各項技術指標如下:十四天RSI報70.68,與11月27日錄得的73.58相比,處在背馳位置,不過,若未來幾天升到28060以上收市,14RSI將創新高,背馳消失。十八天STC的18K%報90.26,5D%在87.59,離發出沽貨訊號尚需時日;保曆加通道的寬度已連續八個交易日拉寬,上週五%BW報8.39%,上線位於27961,過去五個交易日平均每天上移179點,本周中段上線大約位置在28300-28400,可能會有阻力,令升勢略作停等。今日附上的日線圖上,有兩組Standard Error channel,一組由三月低位過來,上週五價位已觸及通道上線,另一組由九月尾低位23114過來,目前價位已穩企在通道中線以上,而上線遠在28700附近,未來兩周將延伸到29000以上。

 

波浪分析,見今日附圖。由於去年低位升到七月初高位26791的內部結構無法數到五個浪,所以只能將26791定為(A)浪頂,順理成章九月低位23114就是(B)浪終點,23114向上是(C)浪上升,由於23114升到11月高位27077的內部結構也比較接近是三浪,所以將27077定為(C)-A浪終點,此A浪上升了3963點,運行39個交易日,27077向右是B浪整固,B浪在12月22日的25991走完全程,B浪下跌1086點,運行19個交易日。自25991向上是C浪上升在運行,到上週五C浪才運行十個交易日,完成上升幅度1976點,若與A浪相比,幅度與時間都還不夠。從小時圖上觀察,25991升到上週三初段的27738,內部結構可以分出五個小浪,暫且將此處視為C-[a]-(a)浪浪頂,從27738開始經過11個小時的一組a-b-c浪調整,上週四的27467已完成了[a]-(b)浪,27467向上是[a]-(c)浪上升,估計[a]-(c)浪本周初完成,經過[b]浪下跌後,還有[c]浪上升,估計[c]浪可以升到一月底。

 

今日還附上一份標普500的日線圖波浪,與同好們探討,之前將三月低位2191.86當作[4]-[A]浪浪底,目前處在[4]-[B]-(C)上升中段,可能會升到圖中的Standard Error channel上線附近,大約在4000點。若之後的回落不低於3233,要小心去年三月低位不是[4]-[A]浪,而是[4]浪底,此乃後話,可在以後更進。

 

以上純屬個人意見,不構成買賣邀請,本人吳祖同為證監會持牌人,本人及本人之客戶會隨時買賣上述分析之相關產品。


 

 

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