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吳子青先生 (Andrew Ng)
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畢業於香港理工大學金融服務系,2008年完成財經分析師(CFA)考試,喜歡綜合基本因素與技術分析研究股票,並對衍生工具及IPO市場有獨到見解,現主力負責公司的高端客戶,提供度身訂造的投資服務
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人民幣淺談

Wednesday, June 8, 2016 Views6406

最新拜訪過一些在國內開廠的叔父前輩, 發現他們都有意或已經在東南亞地區開設工廠, 這主要原因當然是國內工廠成本越來越貴, 但另一方面, 東南亞國家開廠的條件也越來越成熟, 如電力, 物流等的配套也越來越齊全, 這不禁令我們重新反思中國的經濟和人民幣的定位.

 
在美元的強勢之下, 中國正面臨一個兩難局面: 如果把人民幣貶值, 則可能令外匯儲備大量流失, 也影響外資投資的意慾, 低人民幣匯率也會使進口物價變貴, 進一步推高國內生活指數, 尤其是中國已成為糧食進口大國. 另一方面, 如果不貶值, 則進一步減弱工廠的競爭力, 令更多工人失業.
 
正如筆者以前一遍文章說過, 人民幣以跟美元息差的幅度貶值, 這是兩三年內一個最好的做法, 既不引發走資, 也減輕工廠壓力, 也是筆者對人民幣匯價走勢的預測, 但長遠來說, 解決方法還是要把經濟結構轉為內需主導, 這是一個漫長而痛苦的過程, 而且出現另外一個兩難: 工資上漲則出口成本上漲, 工廠失業的情況會更加嚴重, 工資不漲則國民不夠收入支持內需, 若要做到國民收入, 工資和消費同步上漲, 則需要從產業結構轉變, 產品質素提升和生產效率改善等多方面入手, 當國內經濟轉營成功後, 人民幣才有能力再轉強.
 
註: 本人吳子青, 為證監會持牌人士, 截至本評論文章發表日止, 本人及/或其有聯繫者並無持有全部提及之証券的所有相關財務權益
 
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