Market Brief

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許偉龍先生(Anthony Hui)
高級交易員

現任職輝立高級交易員,對投資股票經驗豐富。本人樂意為客戶提供投資分析及買賣策略。歡迎各位來電交流心得。
Phone:
36533066

農夫山泉股份有限公司 (09633.HK)

Thursday, July 31, 2025 Views178

農夫山泉股份有限公司  (09633.HK)

公司簡介: 中國包裝飲用水及飲料的龍頭企業。產品主要覆蓋包裝飲用水、茶飲料(品牌:東方樹葉及茶π)、功能飲料(品牌:尖叫及力量帝維他命水)、果汁飲料及農產品等類別。

 

基本資料 :

現價: $45.2

市值: 2,275.67億

市盈率: 39.424

 

周息率: 1.814%

52週高/低: $47.4 /$23.55

10天/50天/250天平均價 : $43.69/ $39.96/ $34.44

 

業務回顧:

截至2024年12月31日止的全年業績,農夫山泉 的收入按年增長 0.5%至428.96億人民幣 。純利增長0.4%至121.23億元人民幣。

 

評論:

第一,競爭對手管治問題, 利好農夫山泉市佔率

競爭對手繼承權爭拗影響,這場爭議可能影響消費者偏好,並帶來企業管治及管理架構風險,因此預計今年市佔率將下跌。農夫山泉有望從中受益,將加快搶佔市場份額。

 

第二,PET價格下行 毛利率上升

受益於PET塑料(用於製造膠樽)價格下行及產品結構持續提升,預計公司毛利率持續提升。

 

 

第三, 進軍香港市場 展望加強海外市場的探索

6月初東方樹葉正式登陸香港。2024年報表示將繼續加強海外市場的探索,把本集團優秀的產品發展到海外市場,實現「走出去」,以成為國際化的世界一流企業為目標,並為集團開拓新的增長空間。

 

 

第四,反內捲

內地推行反內捲措施有望推動企業減少低價惡性競爭,專注品牌和產品差異化,優化內部管理。農夫山泉可能通過精簡運營、提升效率來降低成本,提升淨利毛利。

 

 

第五,積極推出新產品 拓展銷售渠道

自2025年以來,農夫山泉積極推出新品。 6月推出冰茶產品,主打“100%茶葉萃取 真茶真檸檬”,融入碳酸氣泡,試圖在競爭激烈的冰茶賽道分得一杯羹。在渠道方面,農夫山泉與山姆合作日益緊密。 6月,山姆推出無標籤包裝飲用水,生產商為農夫山泉;同月,山姆上線農夫山泉純透食用冰;7月,雙方聯合推出白樺樹汁。此前,東方樹葉、17.5°鮮榨橙汁等產品也已進駐山姆。山姆作為超級渠道,流量大、品質口碑好,農夫山泉近一年以來頻頻與山姆合作,意在尋找新的業務增長點。

 

第六,東方樹葉繼續帶動茶飲業務增長

上半年東方樹葉推出陳皮白茶及菊花普洱新口味及1.5L包裝產品,疊加開蓋贏獎活動成效顯現,無糖茶市場份額提升。

 

 

買賣策略
買入價: $44

目標價: $54

止蝕價: $40

 

資料來源: 2024年度業績公告 ,新浪財經

 

註:本人許偉龍為證監會持牌人士。截至本評論文章發表日止,本人及/或其有聯繫者並無持有全部提及之証券的所有相關財務權益。

This report is produced and is being distributed in Hong Kong by Phillip Securities Group with the Securities and Futures Commission (“SFC”) licence under Phillip Securities (HK) LTD and/ or Phillip Commodities (HK) LTD (“Phillip”). Information contained herein is based on sources that Phillip believed to be accurate. Phillip does not bear responsibility for any loss occasioned by reliance placed upon the contents hereof. The information is for informative purposes only and is not intended to or create/induce the creation of any binding legal relations. The information provided do not constitute investment advice, solicitation, purchase or sell any investment product(s). Investments are subject to investment risks including possible loss of the principal amount invested. You should refer to your Financial Advisor for investment advice based on your investment experience, financial situation, any of your particular needs and risk preference. For details of different product's risks, please visit the Risk Disclosures Statement on http://www.phillip.com.hk. Phillip (or employees) may have positions/ interests in relevant investment products. Phillip (or one of its affiliates) may from time to time provide services for, or solicit services or other business from, any company mentioned in this report. The above information is owned by Phillip and protected by copyright and intellectual property Laws. It may not be reproduced, distributed or published for any purpose without prior written consent from Phillip.
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