市況評論

作者

譚思聰先生 (Gary Tam)
經理

現任輝立証券分行經理, 樂意為客戶提供投資股票策略及期權分析,對提高投資組合回報有豐富經驗, 歡迎各位來電交流心得。
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MENGNIU DAIRY (2319)

2020年3月9日 星期一 觀看次數2260

Business Summary:

 

China Mengniu Dairy manufacture and distribute quality dairy products in China. It is one of the leading dairy product manufacturers in China, with MENGNIU as its core brand. Mengniu offers diverse products including liquid milk products, ice cream, milk formula and cheese.

 

In 2019, Mengniu made it again on the “Global Dairy Top 10” list published by Rabobank for the third consecutive year. Mengniu made it among Brand Finance’s list of the top 500 most valuable brands of the world. By the end of June 2019, the Group’s annual production capacity reached 10.27 million tons.  In March 2014, Mengniu became a Hang Seng Index constituent, making it the first blue chip Chinese dairy product manufacturer.

 

Business Summary and Prospect:

 

For the six months ended 30 June 2019, revenue rose 15.6% from  RMB34,474.3 million to RMB39,857.2 million, when compared with the same period last year. The revenues of liquid milk and milk formula businesses recorded an increase of 14.4%, and 43.8% respectively; offsetted by a decrease of 2.4% from ice-cream revenues.

 

Despite the raw milk price increases, profit attributable to owners of the company rose 33.0% year-on-year to RMB2,076.9 million (2018: RMB1,562.0 million). Net cash flows from operating activities decreased 22.4% from  RMB3,400 million to RMB2,640 million. Basic earnings per share increased by 32.8% to RMB 53.1 cents. Gross profit margin slightly narrowed by 0.1 % to 39.1%.  No interim dividend was issued.

 

Risk:

 

(a) the outbreak of coronavirus may have affected the sales of  dairy product.

(b) sales may be affected by news about dairy food safety issues

(c) gross profit margin may be affected by raw material price volatility

(d) Mengniu ranks the highest P/E ratio of 33 among major food diary company, just next to Yashili (01230.HK) of ratio: 50. Besides, Mengniu ranks the third highest P/B (ratio: 4); just behind other competitors of H&H Intl Hldg (01112.HK) and Ausnutria (01117.HK)

(e) higher-than-expected cost for material sourcing, production cost & network expansion may occur.

 

Technical Analysis:

 

The stock prices hit historic high of $34.6 on 28 August, 2019. The price has dropped by 20% to recent-low of $27.55.  It is suggested to buying at the price around $29.0. The target price for medium term is $32. Cut-loss price will be $27.0.

References

www.hkex.com.hk

www.etnet.com.hk

www.afe-solutions.com

 

I, Gary Tam, am a licensed person under the Securities and Futures Commission. Until the date this commentary was published, neither I and/or my affiliates are the beneficiary of the securities mentioned herein or are entitled to any financial interests in relation thereto.

 

研究報告由輝立証券集團旗下於香港證監會持牌的輝立証券(香港)有限公司及/ 或輝立商品有限公司(“輝立”)所發報。本文所包含的資料均為輝立從相信為準確的來源搜集。輝立對有關報告所引致之任何損失或虧損概不負責。本報告所載的資料只供参考用途,並沒有法律約束力,亦不構成投資建議、邀約、購入、出售任何產品。
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