Louis Wong Commentary

Author

黃瑋傑先生(Louis Wong)
輝立証券董事

見證過去三十多年香港股市每一個牛市和熊市,可謂實戰經驗豐富。現為香港多份財經報章雜誌專欄作家,並為電視台及電台擔任客席主持。個人著作有〈炒得精叻〉、〈投資先知〉及〈股市是平的〉,並獲『中金在線』選為『2010年最受歡迎的港股分析師』。
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反彈還是反轉?

Monday, September 4, 2023 Views2576

上周港股進一步回升,恆指成功突破前周高位18273,上周三最高見到18742,周四收報18382,相對前周上升2.4%,是連續第二周上升.國指和科指亦連升兩周,周升幅分別為2.5%和2.9%.八月埋單計數仍要下跌,三大指數跌幅都超過8%.滬深股市上周亦見回升,上證綜指和深證成指按周分別上升2.3%和3.3%,但按月卻分別下跌5.2%和6.8%.經濟數據方面,8月份中國官方和財新製造業採購經理指數(PMI)都見改善,其中,官方製造業PMI為49.7,較7月份上升0.4個百分點;而財新中國製造業PMI則從7月份的49.2升至51,重上榮枯分界線.不過,8月份官方非製造業PMI卻由7月份的51.5下降至51,是連續第五個月回落,創去年12月以來的新低.政策面方面,中國證監會繼續打出活躍資本市場組合拳,包括實施證券交易印花稅減半徵收,限制大股東股份減持行為,以及階段性收緊IPO節奏.樓市方面,住房部,中國人民銀行及金融監管總局三部門印發通知,推動落實首套房"認房不認貸"政策,降低購房門檻和成本.匯市方面,人行宣布自9月15日起下調金融機構外匯存款準備金率兩個百分點,由現時的6%下調至4%,估計可釋放160億美元流動性,對人民幣匯價起到穩定作用.

美股方面,上周公布的經濟數據都有利股市.其中,ADP就業人數和非農就業人數8月份增加數都少於預期,失業率由7月份的3.5%上升至3.8%,創一年新高;而8月份平均小時工資僅增長0.2%,較7月份0.4%增幅放慢.同時,7月份JOLTS職位空缺減少至882.7萬,遠低於7月份的958.2萬份和預期的950萬份,顯示勞動市場持續降溫,提升聯儲局九月以至11月都維持利率不變的機會,令債息回落股市上升,道指,標準普爾500和納指按周分別上升1.4%,2.5%和3.2%.

說回港股,恆指由8月22日低位17574回升,究竟是反彈還是反轉?以黃金比率分析,恆指由7月31日高位20361下跌至17574,一共下跌了2787點.若反彈跌幅的0.382,將見到18638.上周四恆指最高見到18742,已超越此反彈目標.若反彈跌幅的一半和0.618,將分別見到18968和19296.所以,對於過去兩周的回升,仍暫宜視為反彈.除非能重越19300,才可確認是反轉.

 

本人黃瑋傑為証監會持牌人士。截至本評論文章發表日止,本人及/或其有聯繫者並無持有全部提及之証券的所有相關財務權益.

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