Louis Wong Commentary

Author

黃瑋傑先生(Louis Wong)
輝立証券董事

見證過去三十多年香港股市每一個牛市和熊市,可謂實戰經驗豐富。現為香港多份財經報章雜誌專欄作家,並為電視台及電台擔任客席主持。個人著作有〈炒得精叻〉、〈投資先知〉及〈股市是平的〉,並獲『中金在線』選為『2010年最受歡迎的港股分析師』。
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恆指未能企穩18300屬虛火上升

Monday, September 18, 2023 Views1690

上周評論指出,恆指再次失守10天和20天線,未來如進一步跌穿17950,將意味由17574低點展開的反彈已告一段落,後市將再下試或下破17574.恆指上周多次下破18000點,周一最低見到17842.中國人民銀行周四宣布,自9月15日起下調金融機構存款準備金率0.25個百分點,估計將釋放約5500億至6000億元人民幣,刺激港股在上周五最高回升見18373,收報18183,相對前周微跌19點;國指和科指按周分別下跌5點和14點.不過,人行下調金融機構存款準備金率的消息對滬深股市卻沒有帶來太大刺激,上證綜指按周微升1點,但滬深300和深證成指按周卻分別下跌0.8%和1.3%.

上周中國公布了"三頭馬車"經濟數據,其中,8月份規模以上工業增加值同比增長4.5%,比7月份加快2.1個百分點;8月份社會消費品零售總額按年增長4.6%,增幅較7月份擴大2.1個百分點.不過,1-8月份固定資產投資按年僅增長3.2%,增幅比1-7月份回落0.2個百分點;房地產開發投資下降8.8%,降幅比1-7月份擴大0.3個百分點.數據顯示,主要經濟指標邊際改善,但國內需求仍顯不足,加上外部不穩定不確定因素依然較大,經濟恢復向好基礎仍需鞏固.

美國上周亦公布了多項重要經濟數據,表現好壞參半.其中,8月份消費者價格指數(CPI)按年上升3.7%,較7月份的3.2%升幅擴大,並略高於預期的3.6%;核心CPI按年升4.3%,符合市場預期,同時較7月份的4.7%升幅放緩.8月份生產物價指數(PPI)按年上升1.6%,較7月份0.8%升幅擴大,同時亦高於預期的1.3%;核心PPI按年上升2.2%,符合市場預期,同時較7月份的2.4%為低.另外,美國8月份零售銷售意外增長0.6%,高於預期的0.2%,曾刺激美股在上周四上升,但周五公布的9月份密歇根大學消費情緒指數跌至67.7,低於預期的69.1,令美股在上周五回落,道指,標準普爾500和納指按周分別下跌0.8%,1.2%和1.6%.

說回港股,恆指上周五雖曾高見18373,但未能企穩18300以及10天線以上,可能只屬虛火上升.本周仍須關注會否跌穿18000點,以至17850的短期支持.

 

本人黃瑋傑為証監會持牌人士。截至本評論文章發表日止,本人及/或其有聯繫者並無持有全部提及之証券的所有相關財務權益.

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