Louis Wong Commentary

Author

黃瑋傑先生(Louis Wong)
輝立証券董事

見證過去三十多年香港股市每一個牛市和熊市,可謂實戰經驗豐富。現為香港多份財經報章雜誌專欄作家,並為電視台及電台擔任客席主持。個人著作有〈炒得精叻〉、〈投資先知〉及〈股市是平的〉,並獲『中金在線』選為『2010年最受歡迎的港股分析師』。
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恆指再次挑戰50天線

Monday, November 6, 2023 Views1466

港股上周先軟後揚,恆指在上周三曾再下試17000,最低見到16979.周四和周五連續兩日回升,周五最高見到17729,收報17664,相對前周上升265點,升幅1.5%.國指和科指也連升兩周,周升幅分別為1.2%和3.4%.雖然上周公布的中國經濟數據差於預期,但未有對滬深股市帶來太大影響,上證綜指和深證成指按周分別上升0.4%和0.8%.10月份官方和財新中國製造業採購經理指數(PMI)雙雙跌入收縮區間,其中,官方中國製造業PMI較9月份下降0.7個百分點至49.5,而財新中國製造業PMI則較9月份下降1.1個百分點至49.5.非製造業PMI則略見分歧,其中,官方非製造業商務活動指數錄得50.6,比9月份回落1.1個百分點,而財新中國服務業經營活動指數則較9月份上升0.2個百分點至50.4,惟不及市場人士預期的51.另一方面,繼續有利好股市的政策出台.財政部發布<<財政部關於引對保險資金長期穩健投資  加強國有商業保險公司長周期考核的通知>>.業內人士認為,<<通知>>對國有商業保險公司實施三年長周期考核,將有助增強國有商業保險公司投資股票、基金等權益類資產的穩定性.

美股上周亦顯著上揚,道指按周上升達5.1%,是自去年10月22日以來的最大單周升幅.至於標準普爾500和納指,按周分別上升5.9%和6.6%.聯儲局一如預期維持利率不變,鮑威爾表示較高的長期美國債孳息率、堅挺的美元和較弱的股市表現所導致的金融環境緊縮,可以對通脹起到遏抑作用,令市場相信加息周期可能結束,疊加美國財政部下調第四季度發債規模預期,令美國債孳息率顯著回落.另一方面,上周公布的美國經濟數據大都差於市場預期,亦強化市場對加息周期見頂的觀點.就業數據方面,10月份"小非農"ADP就業人數增加11.3萬,較預期的15萬為低;非農人數只增加15萬,低於預期的18萬.同時,10月失業率由9月份的3.8%上升至3.9%,高於預期的3.8%;平均時薪上升0.2%,低於預期的0.3%.

說回港股,恆指重越20天線,技術走勢有改善.下一步將挑戰50天線(該幾現時處於17760附近),但會否像9月和10月那樣一觸及50天線便掉頭回落,仍有待觀察.若再次受制於50天線而回落,則務須守住20天線(該線現時處於17480附近).


本人黃瑋傑為証監會持牌人士。截至本評論文章發表日止,本人及/或其有聯繫者並無持有全部提及之証券的所有相關財務權益.

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