Louis Wong Commentary

Author

黃瑋傑先生(Louis Wong)
輝立証券董事

見證過去三十多年香港股市每一個牛市和熊市,可謂實戰經驗豐富。現為香港多份財經報章雜誌專欄作家,並為電視台及電台擔任客席主持。個人著作有〈炒得精叻〉、〈投資先知〉及〈股市是平的〉,並獲『中金在線』選為『2010年最受歡迎的港股分析師』。
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重複九月和十月走勢?

Monday, November 13, 2023 Views1508

上周評論指出,恆指重越20天線,技術走勢有改善,下一步將挑戰50天線,但會否像9月和10月那樣一觸及50天線便掉頭回落,仍有待觀察.結果恆指在上周一一度升越18000點,最高見到18038,亦一併升越50天線(17765).不過,之後卻連跌四天,周五最低見到17178,收報17203,相對前周下跌了461點,跌幅2.6%,結束了連續兩周的升勢,表現虎頭蛇尾.國指和科指按周分別下跌2.5%和1.1%,也結束了連續兩周的升勢.上周公布的中國經濟數據低於預期,加上聯儲局主席鮑威爾在國際貨幣基金組織(IMF)研究會議發表鷹派言論,稱聯儲局官員未確定當前利率已足以令通脹回落,如果條件適合,聯邦公開市場委員會將會毫不猶豫地進一步收緊貨幣政策.此外,30年期國債標售結果差於預期,帶動債息回升,亦為股市帶來壓力.

10月份中國出口(按美元計價)按年下降6.4%,連續第六個月下跌,跌幅遠多於市場預期的3.5%.另一方面,10月份中國居民消費價格指數(CPI)按年下降0.2%,再次呈現負增長,跌幅多於市場預期的0.1%.10月份生產者物價指數(PPI)按年下降2.6%,降幅大於9月份的2.5%,並且是連續第十三個月下降.不過,數據對滬深股市並沒有太大影響.上證綜指按周微升8點,深證成指按周升1.3%.

美股上周整體表現良好,除了上周四因鮑威爾發表鷹派言論,一度令美股下挫,但周五重拾升勢,道指,標普500和納指按周分別上升0.7%,1.3%和2.4%.本周美國將公布10月份消費物價指數和生產者物價指數,以及零售銷售.中國方面,則將公布固定資產投資,工業生產及社會消費品零售等重要經濟數據,加上中美元首會晤,將會影響股市.

說回港股,恆指上周一一度升越50天線,但未能企穩其上,周五更再次跌穿10天和20天線,未能可能重複九月和十月走勢---反彈觸及50天線便掉頭回落,之後更跌穿上一個下跌浪的浪底.所以,除非恆指能重越17500並企穩其上,否則將有很大機會跌破10月24日低位16880,再創年內新低.


本人黃瑋傑為証監會持牌人士。截至本評論文章發表日止,本人及/或其有聯繫者並無持有全部提及之証券的所有相關財務權益.

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