Louis Wong Commentary

Author

黃瑋傑先生(Louis Wong)
輝立証券董事

見證過去三十多年香港股市每一個牛市和熊市,可謂實戰經驗豐富。現為香港多份財經報章雜誌專欄作家,並為電視台及電台擔任客席主持。個人著作有〈炒得精叻〉、〈投資先知〉及〈股市是平的〉,並獲『中金在線』選為『2010年最受歡迎的港股分析師』。
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化解"島形轉向"淡勢信號

Monday, November 20, 2023 Views2161

上周港股表現還是有點虎頭蛇尾,恆指在上周一見到17127全周低位後快速回升,最四最高見到18275但高開低收,周五進一步下跌,收報17454.不過相對前周仍上升了251點,升幅1.5%;國指和科指按周分別上升1.2%和2.3%.滬深股市上周小幅收漲,上證綜指按周上升0.5%,深證成指按周微升1點.上周公布的中國經濟數據有好有壞,其中,10月份社會消費品零售總額按年增長7.6%,好於預期的7%增幅;10月份規模以上工業企業工業增加值按年增長4.6%,好於預期的4.5%;1-10月份城鎮固定資產投資按年增長2.9%,低於預期的3.1%增幅,主要受全國房地產開發投資下跌9.3%(預期跌幅為9.1%)所拖累.所以,市場再傳出中國政府最快將於本月推出「三大工程」(保障性住房、城中村改造和平急兩用基礎設施)的具體實施計畫,並將為此提供總規模至少達到1萬億元人民幣的低成本資金,以期能助力穩定低迷的房地產市場.

美股上周繼續上揚,三大指數連升三周,道指、標準普爾500和納指按周分別上升1.9%、2.2%和2.4%.上周公布的美國通脹數據低於市場預期,強化了市場對聯儲局加息周期見頂的觀點.其中,10月份美國消費者物價指數(CPI)按年上升3.2%,低於9月份的3.7%升幅,亦低於預期的3.3%升幅;10月份美國生產者物價指數(PPI)按年上升1.3%,低於9月份的2.2%升幅,亦低於預期的1.9%升幅.其他經濟數據則顯示美國經濟有放慢跡象,例如10月份美國零售銷售環比下降0.1%,是自今年3月以來首次呈現下降.另外,上周首次申領失業救濟金人數增加1.3萬人,升至23.1萬人,多於市場預期.由於通脹降溫,加上經濟有放慢跡象,所以市場預期聯儲局最快於明年5月實施減息的機率就由前一個星期的三成多上升至上星期的六成以上.

說回港股,恆指上周五最高見到18275,扭轉了先前回升高點一個比一個低的趨勢,同時亦再次突破50天線.只可惜未能企穩18000以及50天線以上,周五更出現"島形轉向"的利淡信號,令人關注上周三和周四的升勢是否又是虛火上升.本周要化解"島形轉向"淡勢信號,恆指須完成三件事:1)守住17400,2)收復50天線(17610),3)補回上周五的下跌裂口(17723-17631).


本人黃瑋傑為証監會持牌人士。截至本評論文章發表日止,本人及/或其有聯繫者並無持有全部提及之証券的所有相關財務權益.

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