Louis Wong Commentary

Author

黃瑋傑先生(Louis Wong)
輝立証券董事

見證過去三十多年香港股市每一個牛市和熊市,可謂實戰經驗豐富。現為香港多份財經報章雜誌專欄作家,並為電視台及電台擔任客席主持。個人著作有〈炒得精叻〉、〈投資先知〉及〈股市是平的〉,並獲『中金在線』選為『2010年最受歡迎的港股分析師』。
Phone:
2277 6666

橫行等待突破

Monday, November 27, 2023 Views2011

上周評論指出,恆指須完成三件事(守住17400;收復50天線;補回前周五介於17723-17631之間下跌裂口),以化解"島形轉向"淡勢信號,結果都一一達到.恆指在上周二最高見到18058,周五收報17559,相對前周上升了105點,升幅0.6%,是連續第二周上升.唯一美中不足的是,恆指上周五再次跌穿50天線.國指和科指亦連升兩周,周升幅同為1.1%.滬深股市方面,上證綜指和深證成指結束了連續四周的升勢,按周分別下跌0.5%和1.4%.人民幣兌美元匯價在過去一周上升超過2%,上周五中間價報7.1212兌1美元,創逾5個月新高,主要受惠聯儲局加息周期結束預期帶來的美元走弱,對股市卻沒有帶來太大利好刺激.市場將關注本周公布的製造業和非製造業採購經理指數,以及規模以上工業企業利潤數據.

美股方面,三大指數連升四周,道指和標準普爾500按周同升1.3%,而納指則升0.9%.上周公布的數據顯示,美國經濟有放慢跡象,強化了市場對聯儲局加息周期見頂的觀點,對股市有利.其中,10月份耐用品訂單按月下跌5.4%,遠高於市場預期的3.1%降幅.最新一周首次申領失業救濟金人數升至26.1萬,是一年半以來最高水平,並且高於預期的23.5萬,反映企業裁員影響浮現,勞動市場開始呈現冷卻跡象.此外,標普全球最新採購經理指數初值數據顯示,11月製造業PMI為49.4,低於10月的50,重新出現收縮,同時亦低於預期的59.8,顯示製造業的經營狀況下降.市場將關注本周公布的多項經濟數據,包括美國第三季國內生產總值年化增長率修訂值,10月份個人消費支出(PCE)物價指數和11月份ISM製造業PMI.

說回港股,恆指11月至今並沒有跌穿上月低位,扭轉了前三個月"月月見新低"的下行趨勢,演變為橫行趨勢,預計將維持於17100和18200之間上下波動一段時間,以等待突破.

 

本人黃瑋傑為証監會持牌人士。截至本評論文章發表日止,本人及/或其有聯繫者並無持有全部提及之証券的所有相關財務權益.

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