Author

黃瑋傑先生(Louis Wong)
輝立証券董事
見證過去三十多年香港股市每一個牛市和熊市，可謂實戰經驗豐富。現為香港多份財經報章雜誌專欄作家，並為電視台及電台擔任客席主持。個人著作有〈炒得精叻〉、〈投資先知〉及〈股市是平的〉，並獲『中金在線』選為『2010年最受歡迎的港股分析師』。
Phone:
2277 6666
Email:
research@phillip.com.hk

關鍵位26200

Monday, September 22, 2025

港股三大指數上周同創年內新高，恆指最高見到27058點，國指和科指最高分別見到9667點和6461點。三大指數創年內新高後略見回吐，總結一周，恆指累升了157點或0.6%；國指累升1.1%，與恆指俱連升兩周。科指累升5.1%，是連續第七周上升。南下資金持續流入，據統計，今年初至9月12日，港股通資金淨流入達到10,729億元，較2024年全年高33%，有望創下年度新高。

中國三頭馬車經濟數據以至失業率數據都低於預期，其中，8月規模以上工業增加值按年增長5.2%，預期增長5.6%。社會消費品零售總額按年增長3.4%，預期增長3.8%。今年首8個月城鎮固定資產投資按年升0.5%，預期升1.5%。期內房地產開發投資按年下降12.9%，預期下降12.5%；其中，住宅投資下降11.9%。8月城鎮調查失業率為5.3%，預期和前值均為5.2%。A股上周表現分化，上證指數曾升至3,899點創逾十年新高，上周五收報3,820點，按周下跌1.3%；深成指和創業板指數按周分別上升1.1%和2.35%。

聯儲局一如預期降息四分一厘，將基準利率下調至4%至4.25%，更表明今年將再降息兩次共半厘，較市場預期更激進，主要是美國就業市場疲軟。美國總統特朗普與中國國家主席習近平上周五進行了通話，特朗普表示是次通話富有成效，中國初步批准接管TikTok美國業務的協議，雙方計劃於下個月在南韓會面，而特朗普會在兩人會面後於明年前往中國。美股三大股指於周四齊創新高後，周五再度破頂，道指收報46,315點，按周上升1%。標普500指數收報6,664點，按周升1.2%。納指收報22,631點，按周升2.2%。

聯儲局上調今年底經濟增長率預期，由1.4%上調至1.6%，明年則由1.6%上調至1.8%。其他經濟數據方面，美國8月零售銷售按月增0.6%，與經修正的7月的0.6%增幅相同，超出市場預期的0.2%增幅。美國8月工業生產上升0.1%，超出市場預期的降0.1%，及7月經下修的0.4%降幅。9月第二周初次申請失業救濟人數下降3.3萬人至23.1萬人，低於市場預期的24萬人，亦是從2021年10月以來的高位26.4萬大幅下降。不過，美國8月諮商會領先經濟指數(LEI)卻下降0.5%至98.4，為自2025年4月以來最大月度跌幅，預示未來經濟將面臨更多挑戰。

說回港股，上周評論指出，恆指終於突破26000點，量度上升目標可見27100點。結果恆指最高見到27058點而未能站穩27000點。第一次突破整數關口或重要阻力位，通常都會出現這種情況，但也有可能是出現了短期階段性高點，關鍵位將是26200點。如果守住26200點，完成短期整固後有望再挑戰27000點。如果失守26200點，將進一步下調，考驗25700點的支持。

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關鍵位26200

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