Louis Wong Commentary

Author

黃瑋傑先生(Louis Wong)
輝立証券董事

見證過去三十多年香港股市每一個牛市和熊市,可謂實戰經驗豐富。現為香港多份財經報章雜誌專欄作家,並為電視台及電台擔任客席主持。個人著作有〈炒得精叻〉、〈投資先知〉及〈股市是平的〉,並獲『中金在線』選為『2010年最受歡迎的港股分析師』。
Phone:
2277 6666

飄忽市左一巴右一巴

Monday, October 20, 2025 Views529

港股連跌兩周,恆指在上周一裂口下跌,之後反彈卻受制於26000點,周五最低見到25145點,收報25247點,相對上周下跌了1043點,跌幅近4%。國指和科指按周分別跌3.7%和8%。南向資金上周淨流入450.89億元。

 

A股上周也表現偏軟,上證指數3900得而復失,上周五收報3,839點,按周跌1.5%。深成指收報12,688,按周跌5%。創業板指數收報2,935點,周跌幅達5.7%。經濟數據方面,中國9月美元計出口按年增8.3%,優於市場預期的6.6%升幅;進口按年增7.4%,遠勝市場預期增1.8%。另外,9月全國居民消費價格(CPI)按年下降0.3%,跌幅大於市場預期跌0.2%,但扣除食品和能源價格的核心CPI按年上漲1%,漲幅連續第5個月擴大,為近19個月以來漲幅首次回到1%。今年首三季平均,全國居民消費價格比上年同期下降0.1%。9月份工業生產者出廠價格指數(PPI)環比連續兩個月持平;同比下降2.3%,符合預期,降幅比上月收窄0.6個百分點。不過,信貸需求仍然疲弱,9月新增人民幣貸款1.29萬億元,少於市場預期中值的1.47萬億元。在新增人民幣貸款中,受房地產市場低迷和投資持續疲軟影響,居民消費貸款為3890億元(去年同期為5000億元)和企業貸款為1.22萬億元(去年同期為1.49萬億元)。短期居民消費貸款貼息計劃實施後,短期居民消費貸款1420億元較上季有所改善,但仍低於 2024年9月(2700億元)的水平。9月社會融資規模增量為3.53萬億元,多於預期。9月末,廣義貨幣(M2)按年增8.4%,略低於市場預期的8.5%。狹義貨幣(M1)按年增7.2%,高於市場預期的6.1%。流通中貨幣(M0)按年增11.5%。M1和M2的剪刀差有所收窄。

 

本周一中國將公布第三季GDP及9月「三頭馬車」經濟數據,中共「四中全會」亦會在本周一開幕,至周四結束。中國第三季經濟增長預測為4.7%,較第二季增長5.2%及首季增長5.4%顯著放緩,但以首三季增長5.1%計算,仍符合今年全年「5%左右」的增速目標。「三頭馬車」方面,市場預測9月份工業增加值按年增長4.9%,社會消費品零售總額增長2.9%;首三季固定資產投資增長率為零。

 

美股上周表現靠穩,雖然兩家區域性銀行出現信貸問題,一度令有「恐慌指數」之稱的VIX指數飆升至25點水平,但總結一周道指仍升1.6%;標普500指數和納指分別升1.7%和2.1%。美國政府停擺已進入第三周,暫時對美股無大影響,市場密切注視中美貿易關係進展,美方的言論時好吐壞,最新進展是美國財長貝森特與中國國務院副總理何立峰進行了對話,貝森特說兩人就中美貿易問題進行坦誠和詳細的討論,他們將在本星期會面,繼續進行討論。中方則發表報告,批評美方將經貿問題政治化,敦促美方盡快取消對等關稅等違規措施。

 

恆指失守了50天移動平均線(現時處於25871點附近),並形成短期一浪低於一浪的走勢,從技術走勢看,可能下試25000點。如果25000點失守,下一個支持位為24650點。不過,有關中美貿易談判和四中全會的消息卻可能左右技術走勢,例如上周五港股ADR就預計恆指本周一高開580點 報25,828點,所以做好做淡都要提高警覺,小心左一巴右一巴。

 

This report is produced and is being distributed in Hong Kong by Phillip Securities Group with the Securities and Futures Commission (“SFC”) licence under Phillip Securities (HK) LTD and/ or Phillip Commodities (HK) LTD (“Phillip”). Information contained herein is based on sources that Phillip believed to be accurate. Phillip does not bear responsibility for any loss occasioned by reliance placed upon the contents hereof. The information is for informative purposes only and is not intended to or create/induce the creation of any binding legal relations. The information provided do not constitute investment advice, solicitation, purchase or sell any investment product(s). Investments are subject to investment risks including possible loss of the principal amount invested. You should refer to your Financial Advisor for investment advice based on your investment experience, financial situation, any of your particular needs and risk preference. For details of different product's risks, please visit the Risk Disclosures Statement on http://www.phillip.com.hk. Phillip (or employees) may have positions/ interests in relevant investment products. Phillip (or one of its affiliates) may from time to time provide services for, or solicit services or other business from, any company mentioned in this report. The above information is owned by Phillip and protected by copyright and intellectual property Laws. It may not be reproduced, distributed or published for any purpose without prior written consent from Phillip.
Top of Page
Contact Us
Please contact your account executive or call us now.
Research Department
Tel : (852) 2277 6846
Fax : (852) 2277 6565
Email : businessenquiry@phillip.com.hk

Enquiry & Support
Branches
The Complaint Procedures
About Us
Phillip Securities Group
Join Us
Phillip Network
Phillip Post
Phillip Channel
Latest Promotion
新闻稿
E-Check
Login
Investor Notes
Free Subscribe
Contact Us