Louis Wong Commentary

Author

黃瑋傑先生(Louis Wong)
輝立証券董事

見證過去三十多年香港股市每一個牛市和熊市,可謂實戰經驗豐富。現為香港多份財經報章雜誌專欄作家,並為電視台及電台擔任客席主持。個人著作有〈炒得精叻〉、〈投資先知〉及〈股市是平的〉,並獲『中金在線』選為『2010年最受歡迎的港股分析師』。
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9月22日走勢翻版?

Tuesday, October 3, 2023 Views5727

上周港股重複前周走勢,就是星期一至四反覆下行,周五大幅反彈.恆指在上周四最低見到17353,再創年內新低,周五大幅上升437點,收報17810,但相對前周仍下跌247點,是連續第四周下跌.國指和科指也連跌四周,周跌幅同為1.8%.9月埋單計數,恆指,國指和科指分別下跌3.1%,2.9%和6.2%.滬深股市方面,上證綜指和深證成指按周都下跌0.7%,按月分別下跌0.3%和3%.經濟數據方面,1-8月份全國規模以上工業企業利潤同比下降11.7%,降幅較1-7月份收窄3.8個百分點.其中,8月份規模以上工業企業利潤同比增長17.2%,是自去年下半年以來當月利潤首次實現正增長,主要由於企業營業收入連跌三個月後首次呈現增長,加上工業品價格降幅連續兩個月收窄,帶動工業企業利潤由降轉升.此外,9月份官方製造業採購經理指數(PMI)為50.2,是連續第四個月環比上升,同時重返擴張區間.另一方面,9月份非製造業商務活動指數為51.7,比上月上升0.7個百分點,顯示非製造業擴張力度亦有所增強.

美股亦表現不佳,道指和標準普爾500指數按周分別下跌1.3%和0.7%,納指基本持平.9月埋單計數,道指,標普500和納指分別下跌了3.5%,4.9%和5.8%,創今年以來最大單月跌幅,主要由於美國國債孳息持續攀升,10年期國債收益率升越4.6%,加上市場憂慮美國政府停擺,令股市受壓.不過,美國參眾兩院終於先後通過為期45日的臨時撥款法案,避免聯邦政府停擺,本周美股料會有所反彈.經濟數據方面,美國9月份耐用品訂單按月上升0.2%,好於市場預期的下跌0.5%;扣除飛機和國防用品的核心資本品訂單上升0.4%,亦好於預期的上升0.2%.不過,美國第二季經濟增長率終值為2.1%,低於預期的2.2%,主要反映消費者支出,聯邦政府支出和出口下滑.另一方面,美國諮商會9月份消費信心指數連續第二個月急降,由前值上修後的108.7降至103,創四個月新低,亦遜於預期的105.5,反映消費者對經濟前景感到憂慮.通脹方面,美國8月份個人消費開支(PCE)物價指數按月上升0.4%,略低於市場預期,按年則上升3.5%;扣除食品及能源價格的核心指數按月上升0.1%,低於市場預期,但按年上升3.9%,仍高於聯儲局設定的2%通脹目標.

說回港股,恆指前周五一度急彈超過400點,但剛好反彈由9月4日高位18899下跌至9月22日低位17574整個跌幅的0.382左右,便掉頭下跌.恆指上周五亦急彈超過400點,也剛好反彈由9月4日高位下跌至9月28日低位17353整個跌幅的0.382左右,會否是前周五的走勢翻版,完成反彈後繼續下行探底,值得關注.而要扭轉下行態勢,恆指起碼要升越18300並企穩其上.

 

本人黃瑋傑為証監會持牌人士。截至本評論文章發表日止,本人及/或其有聯繫者並無持有全部提及之証券的所有相關財務權益.

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