Louis Wong Commentary

Author

黃瑋傑先生(Louis Wong)
輝立証券董事

見證過去三十多年香港股市每一個牛市和熊市,可謂實戰經驗豐富。現為香港多份財經報章雜誌專欄作家,並為電視台及電台擔任客席主持。個人著作有〈炒得精叻〉、〈投資先知〉及〈股市是平的〉,並獲『中金在線』選為『2010年最受歡迎的港股分析師』。
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2277 6666

反彈接近尾聲?

Monday, April 28, 2025 Views142

美股上周亦反覆上揚,美國政府官員對美中貿易談判表達樂觀看法,加上總統特朗普表示無意提前解除聯儲局主席鮑威爾的職務,為股市帶來利好刺激,道指重越40000大關,上周五收報40113,按周上升2.5%。標普500指數收報5525,按周上升4.6%。納指收報17382,按周飆漲6.7%。

經濟數據方面,美國4月製造業PMI初值報50.7,超預期的49,前值為50.2;服務業PMI初值為51.4,低於預期的52.2,前值為54.4。3月耐用品訂單初值按月升8.2%,遠超市場預期的2%及2月的1%,主因在實施主要關稅之前訂單激增。 4月第三周美國初次申請失業救濟金人數較前一周增加6,000人,至22.2萬人,符合市場預期,仍相對接近前一期的兩個月低位。4月密歇根大學消費者信心指數終值為52.2,高於初值的50.8,1年通脹預期終值為6.5,低於初值的6.7%,但仍為1981年以來最高,5年通脹預期為4.4%。

本周將迎來多間大型科企業績,包括微軟、蘋果及亞馬遜等。同時,市場亦將關注就業、通脹及首季經濟增長三大重磅數據。美國首季GDP預期按季增長0.4%,較去年第四季大幅放緩2個百分點。3月整體及核心消費者開支物價指數(PCE)按年及按月增長預計將放緩。其中,核心PCE按年升幅預期回落0.2個百分點至2.6%,按月升幅預計回落0.3個百分點至0.1%。4月非農就人口增長預計將由3月的22.8萬份大幅減少至13萬,失業率料維持4.2%。

說回港股,恆指由4月9日低位19260回升至上周五高位22268,已回升3008點,補回了4月7日下跌裂口(該下跌裂口闊1590點,介於22638和21048之間)的大部分,也反彈了由3月19 日高位24874跌至4月9日低位19260下跌浪(一共下跌了5614點)的53.6%。如反彈跌浪的0.618,有望見到22730,但觀乎9天相對強弱指數(RSI)一直處於50水平,未見進一步增強,提防反彈可能已接近尾聲,第一個警戒位為21600,第二個警戒位為20850。


本人黃瑋傑為証監會持牌人士。截至本評論文章發表日止,本人及/或其有聯繫者並無持有全部提及之証券的所有相關財務權益.

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