Louis Wong Commentary

Author

黃瑋傑先生(Louis Wong)
輝立証券董事

見證過去三十多年香港股市每一個牛市和熊市,可謂實戰經驗豐富。現為香港多份財經報章雜誌專欄作家,並為電視台及電台擔任客席主持。個人著作有〈炒得精叻〉、〈投資先知〉及〈股市是平的〉,並獲『中金在線』選為『2010年最受歡迎的港股分析師』。
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上升裂口幾乎完全補回

Monday, July 7, 2025 Views228

港股上周反覆走軟,恒生指數上周五最低見到23691點,收報23916點,按周下跌1.5%。國企指數收報8609點,按周下跌1.7%。恒生科技指數下收報5216,按周下跌2.3%。不過,總結上半年,恆指累升兩成,國指累升約19%,科指累升約18.7%,三大指數上半年累計漲幅均進入全球排名前十。滬深股市上周造好,上證指數逼近3500,上周五最高見到3497,見逾八個月高位。滬深300指數連升五日,曾經突破4000點水平,見逾三個月高位。全周計,三大指數均連升兩周,升幅超逾1%。總結上半年,上證指數和深成指分別上漲2.8%和0.5%。據報道,中國證監會黨委近日召開擴大會議,提出持續優化股債融資、併購重組等資本市場機制安排,推進以“兩創板”改革為抓手的資本市場改革。

 

經濟數據方面,6月中國官方製造業採購經理人指數(PMI)為49.7,高於5月的49.5,也略高於市場預期的49.6,但仍低於50榮枯線,連續第3個月落入萎縮區間。至於反映服務業表現的非製造業商務活動指數則升至50.5,為3個月高位。6月財新中國製造業PMI升至50.4,重回擴張區間,勝市場預期,並高於5月2.1個百分點。不過,6月財新中國服務業PMI卻按月回落0.5至50.6,跌至去年10月以來低位,不過,仍連續30個月處於擴張區。

當前外部環境依然嚴峻複雜,不確定因素增多,內部有效需求不足問題亦未得到根本扭轉,所以主要宏觀經濟指標出現分化。本周三中國將公布6月通脹和金融數據,其中,6月CPI預測下跌0.1%,而PPI則預測下跌3.2%。

 

美股上周上揚,參眾兩院趕在7月4日國慶日前通過「大而美法案」,雖可能加劇財政壓力,但亦有助推動經濟增長,加上就業數據強勁,標普500指數和納指同創歷史新高。全周計,道指、標普500指數和納指分別上升0.7%、0.8%和1%。經濟數據方面,6月ADP私人就業人數減少3.3萬人,遠低於市場預期的增長9.5萬人,是自2023年3月以來的首次下降,5月數據亦大幅下修至增加2.9萬人。不過,

6月美國非農就業人數卻增加14.7萬人,遠高於11萬人的預測, 5月份修正數據為14.4萬人。值得注意的是,增幅主要來自州與地方政府部門的教育人員僱用,合計增加超過6萬人,為自2023年初以來最大增幅。失業率從5月的4.2%輕微下降至4.1%,超出市場預期的4.3%,主要受到就業人口增加9.3萬人與失業人口減少的共同影響。平均時薪按年上升3.7%,低於預期的3.9%和前值的修正後的3.8%,按月則上升0.2%,低於預期的0.3%和前值的0.4%。整體數據反映,美國勞動市場在經濟放緩、貿易政策不確定的背景下依然具有韌性,也強化了聯儲局暫時不急於降息的立場,但工資升幅溫和,顯示下半年聯儲局仍具降息空間。

 

本周有多個觀察變數,首先是7月9日對等關稅暫緩期到期,關注特朗普政策動向以及與各國就關稅協議的談判進展。其次是美中就TikTok出售美國業務的談判,特朗普表示美方接近達成出售協議。地緣政治方面,則關注俄烏戰事和加沙停火方案談判進展。說回港股,恆指上周五曾低見23691,差不多完全補回6月24日的上升裂口(23689-23833),收市指數23916距離24000不遠。如能重越24000並收復10天和20天移動平均線,短期調整應已告完成。反之,將繼續下行,或將考驗50天線,該線已升近23500點水平。

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