Author

黃瑋傑先生(Louis Wong)
輝立証券董事
見證過去三十多年香港股市每一個牛市和熊市，可謂實戰經驗豐富。現為香港多份財經報章雜誌專欄作家，並為電視台及電台擔任客席主持。個人著作有〈炒得精叻〉、〈投資先知〉及〈股市是平的〉，並獲『中金在線』選為『2010年最受歡迎的港股分析師』。
Phone:
2277 6666
Email:
research@phillip.com.hk

恆指創今年收市新高

Monday, July 21, 2025

448

港股連升兩周，恆指上周五以全日高位24,825點收市，按周上升2.8%，國指和科指按周分別上升3.4%和5.5%。滬深股市也造好，總結一周,上證指數升0.7%，深成指升2%，創指升3.2%。上周公布的內地經濟數據大部分都好於預期，如

6月美元計出口按年增5.8%，預期增5.1%；6月新增人民幣貸款2.24萬億元，遠超預期的1.8萬億元；6月社會融資規模增4.2萬億元，遠超預期的3.65萬億元；中國第二季國內生產總值(GDP)按年增長5.2%，市場預期為增長5.1%；「三頭馬車」數據中，6月規模以上工業增加值按年增長6.8%，預期增長5.6%。不過，社會消費品零售總額和全國固定資產投資增長卻都低於市場預期。6月社會消費品零售總額按年增長4.8%，市場預期增長5.3%。今年上半年，全國固定資產投資按年增長2.8%，市場預期增長3.6%。除了經濟數據優於預期，英偉達獲美國政府通知H20晶片將可獲得出口中國許可，為科技股帶來利好刺激，令科指上周升幅跑贏恆指和國指。

美股上周持續向好，標普500指數和納指齊齊再創歷史新高。總結全周，納指累升1.5%，標指累升0.6%，道指累跌0.06%。經濟數據方面，美國6月CPI按年升2.7%，高於預期的2.6%；核心CPI按年升2.9%，符合預期。6月PPI按年升幅降至2.3%，低於預期的2.5%；核心PPI按年升幅降至2.6%，低於預期的2.7%。另一方面，6月零售銷售按月增長0.6%，從5月的0.9%下降中反彈，超出市場預期的0.1%增長，顯示消費韌性。初次申請失業救濟人數較前一周減少7,000，降至七月第二周的22.1萬，遠低於市場預期的上升8,000至23.5萬，是自4月以來單周新申請人數最低的一次，反映就業市場依舊穩健。消費信心和通脹預期也有所改善，7月密歇根大學消費信心指數升至61.8，高於預期61.5及6月60.7。未來1年通脹預期連續第二個月下跌，由6月5%下降至7月4.4%。長期通脹預期則連續第三個月回落，由6月4%回落至7月3.6%，兩項數字均為今年2月以來最低。

本周美股有三大觀察變數，首先是特朗普政府與各國就關稅協議的談判進展。其次是經濟數據，本周要公布的數據包括7月S&P全球製造業採購經理人指數（PMI）初值、6月耐用品訂單、新屋銷售、成屋銷售等。三是企業財報，本周將公布財報的企業包括Alphabet、特斯拉、英特爾、IBM、德州儀器、可口可樂、通用汽車、西南航空、美國航空等。說回港股，恆指雖仍未突破3月高位24874,但上周五收市指數24825再創今年新高收市指數，後市料可突破24874，上試25000，下一目標看25400。科指創3月28日以來新高，下一目標可上試5700。

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恆指創今年收市新高

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