Louis Wong Commentary

Author

黃瑋傑先生(Louis Wong)
輝立証券董事

見證過去三十多年香港股市每一個牛市和熊市,可謂實戰經驗豐富。現為香港多份財經報章雜誌專欄作家,並為電視台及電台擔任客席主持。個人著作有〈炒得精叻〉、〈投資先知〉及〈股市是平的〉,並獲『中金在線』選為『2010年最受歡迎的港股分析師』。
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敏感三角形待變

Monday, August 11, 2025 Views331

港股上周止跌回升,恆措在上周一見到24373全周最低位後連升四天,上周四最高見到25115,但未能企穩25000以上,周五收報24,858點,按周上升1.4%,國指和科指按周分別升1%和1.2%。滬深股市上周亦向好,上證指數上越3600,按周上升2.1%;深成指按周升1.2%。經濟數據方面,中國7月進出口均勝預期。以美元計,7月中國出口按年升7.2%,增速連續兩個月加快,是三個月來最好、並好於預期。7月進口更出乎預期不跌反升,增速加快至4.1%,是一年來最好。東盟繼續是中國最大貿易夥伴,向東盟出口增速較6月輕微放慢至16.5%,對歐盟出口升幅擴大至9.2%,意味關稅影響下,中國出口商加快開拓歐洲市場。對美國出口跌幅則擴大至兩成一,顯示前期搶出口帶來的對美出口回升暫時告一段落。另一方面,中國7月消費物價指數﹙CPI﹚按年表現持平,前值為升0.1%。按月則升0.4%,扣除食品及能源價格的核心CPI按年升0.8%,升幅連續3個月擴大,而且是去年3月以來最高。然而,受季節性因素疊加國際貿易環境不確定性影響,生產者物價指數﹙PPI﹚按年跌3.6%,前值亦為-3.6%。按月跌0.2%,跌幅收窄0.2個百分點,反映中國經濟仍未擺脫通縮威脅。


 

美股上周也反覆向好,市場繼續關注特朗普最新關稅政策。納指上周五創收市歷史新高,周升幅達3.9%。道指和標普500指數按周分別上升1.4%和2.4%。美俄兩國元首敲定在8月15日於阿拉斯加舉行會談,重點是實現烏克蘭長期和平的方案,為股市帶來利好刺激。經濟數據方面,7月ISM服務業指數跌至50.1,低於市場預期的51.5,險守榮枯線之上。另外,上周美國初次失業救濟申請增加7,000人至22.6萬人,明顯高於市場預期的較柔和增長至22.1萬人。勞動市場數據疲憊,令包括聯儲局副主席在內的3位聯儲局官員表逹對勞動市場的憂慮,暗示9月可能減息。美國7月消費者價格指數(CPI)將於本周二公布,預計同比上漲2.8%。如果數據顯示通脹高於預期,將削弱市場對即將減息的樂觀預期。

 

說回港股,恆指由7月31日高位25736下跌至上周一低位24373,一共下跌了1363點,周四最高回升見25115,大約反彈了跌幅的54%。現在形成一個敏感三角形,處於待變格局,上阻力25100,下支持24500,看往哪一方突破。

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