Louis Wong Commentary

Author

黃瑋傑先生(Louis Wong)
輝立証券董事

見證過去三十多年香港股市每一個牛市和熊市,可謂實戰經驗豐富。現為香港多份財經報章雜誌專欄作家,並為電視台及電台擔任客席主持。個人著作有〈炒得精叻〉、〈投資先知〉及〈股市是平的〉,並獲『中金在線』選為『2010年最受歡迎的港股分析師』。
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三次到頂而破?

Monday, August 25, 2025 Views215

上周港股窄幅波動,恆指高低波幅(

25466點-24887點)只得579點,周五收報25,339點,按周上升0.3%;國指和科指按周分別上升0.5%和1.9%,三大指數都連升三周。滬深股市上周表現強勢,上證指數突破3800點,連續多日創十年高位,按周上升3.5%。深成指突破12000點,周升幅達4.6%。滬深兩市連續六個交易日破兩萬億,兩融餘額達到2.1萬億。推動滬深股市上升的利好因素包括:內地流動性自今年6月起有改善。其次,中國10年期國債息率由6月底的1.65厘升近1.8厘,債價下跌而債息上升,顯示不少內地投資者把資金由債券及儲蓄存款轉向A股。迭加內地宏觀經濟數據疲弱,令投資者憧憬中央的反內捲措施有助物價回穩及供需平衡改善,同時下半年可能推出寬鬆措施。


 

美股上周表現反覆,科技股普遍受壓。麻省理工學院(MIT)發布的一份報告提到,高達95%的機構在AI投資上至今「未獲得任何回報」,導致市場對AI投資過熱的疑慮升高,迭加美國政府要求將「晶片法案」對晶片廠商的補助轉為股權,為晶片股帶來沽壓。不過,美國聯儲局主席鮑威爾在Jackson Hole全球央行年會上放鴿,強調美國就業市場下行風險超過通脹上行風險,鑒於「風險平衡似乎正發生轉變」,政策已處在限制性區間「可能需要調整政策立場」。美國8月第二周首次申請失業救濟人數按周增加1.1萬人至23.5萬人,遠高於市場預期的22.5萬人,創下八周以來單周最高增幅,顯示美國勞動市場進一步放緩,促使鮑威爾轉鴿,而芝加哥商品交易所集團旗下FedWatch工具顯示,9月減息機率最新升至83%,刺激美股上周五大漲。道指和納指均升1.9%,道指更創新高,高收846點至45,631點,納指升396點至21,496點。標普500指數高收96點或1.5%,至6,466點,逼近上周新高。全星期計,道指累升1.5%,標普500指數升0.3%。由於大型科技股一直受壓,至周五才反彈,納指全周累跌0.6%。


 

美股本周能否延續升勢,端視周三揭曉的英偉達業績和周五公布PCE通脹數據。美國7月PCE物價指數月率預測升0.2%,前值升0.3%;年率預測升2.6%,前值升2.6%。7月核心PCE物價指數月率預測升0.3%,前值升0.3%;年率預測升2.9%,前值升2.8%。


 

說回港股,恆指在25735點/25766點形成雙頂回落,最低跌至24887,已調整了一個多星期,料已完成短期整固,可借助美股強勢再挑戰雙頂,而且很大機會出現三次到頂而破的走勢,下一步可望上試26000點。
 

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