Author

黃瑋傑先生(Louis Wong)
輝立証券董事
見證過去三十多年香港股市每一個牛市和熊市，可謂實戰經驗豐富。現為香港多份財經報章雜誌專欄作家，並為電視台及電台擔任客席主持。個人著作有〈炒得精叻〉、〈投資先知〉及〈股市是平的〉，並獲『中金在線』選為『2010年最受歡迎的港股分析師』。
Phone:
2277 6666
Email:
research@phillip.com.hk

又一次假突破

Monday, November 17, 2025

144

港股上周走勢本來不錯，恆指在上星期一至星期四連升四天，並曾上破27000點，周四最高見27188點，但美聯儲局官員「放鷹」，令美股及科技股受壓。恒指下跌500點或1.8%，收報26,572點，跌500點或1.8%，但相對上前周仍升331點或1.3%，是連升第二周。國企指數上周五收報9,397點，按周上升1.4%，也連升兩周。恒生科技指數上周五收報5,812點，連跌三周，周跌幅為0.4%。

滬深股市上周先升後跌，上證指數最終失守4,000點，收報3,990點，按周下跌近0.2%。深成指和創業板指按周分別下跌1.4%和3%。上周中國公布了多項重要經濟數據，其中，10月CPI（居民消費價格）同比上漲0.2%，較前值回升0.5個百分點，好於預期下跌0.1%，環比漲幅較前值擴大0.1個百分點至0.2%。核心CPI同比上漲1.2%，漲幅連續6個月擴大，創去年3月以來新高。10月PPI（工業生產者出廠價格）同比下降2.1%，降幅收窄0.2個百分點，好於預期下降2.2%；PPI環比由9月持平轉為上漲0.1%，為年內首次上漲。「三頭馬車」數兩壞一好，其中，10月規模以上工業企業增加值按年增4.9%，市場預期升5.5%；首十月全國固定資產投資按年跌1.7%，大於市場預期的0.8%跌幅；10月社會消費品零售總額按年增2.9%，略勝市場預期升2.8%。同時，10月全國城鎮調查失業率5.1%，也優於市場預期的5.2%。另外，人民銀行公布，10月新增貸款約2200億元，遜於預期的5000億元，亦低於9月的1.29萬億元。10月社會融資規模增量為8100億元，低於預期的12285億元，創去年7月以來新低。10月末，廣義貨幣(M2)按年增長8.2%，高於市場預期升8.1%。狹義貨幣(M1)按年增長6.2%，市場預期升7%。流通中貨幣(M0)按年增長10.6%。10月金融數據顯示信貸需求持續疲軟，新增規模遠低於市場預期，反映經濟復甦動力不足。

美股方面，美國政府終於結朿停擺，但美聯儲局官員「放鷹」，疊加市場憂慮AI股估值過高，令科技股承壓。納指上周五收報22,900點，按周下跌0.5%。道指和標普500指數按周分別升0.1%及0.3%。受政府停擺影響，密歇根大學11月消費者信心指數初值跌至50.3,創近3年半新低,低於10月的53.6,並低於市場預期的53.2。另外，ADP 數據顯示，截至 10 月 25 日的四週期間，美國企業平均每週裁減 11,250 名員工，顯示勞動市場在10月下半月呈現降溫態勢。展望本周投資者將聚焦英偉達業績，經濟數據也隨美國政府停擺結束恢復發布，包括9月非農就業報告。

說回港股，上周恆指曾突破27000點但未能企穩其上，證明又是一次假突破。未來仍將維持上落市走勢，短期波動區間料介於26200點至27200點之間。

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