Louis Wong Commentary

Author

黃瑋傑先生(Louis Wong)
輝立証券董事

見證過去三十多年香港股市每一個牛市和熊市,可謂實戰經驗豐富。現為香港多份財經報章雜誌專欄作家,並為電視台及電台擔任客席主持。個人著作有〈炒得精叻〉、〈投資先知〉及〈股市是平的〉,並獲『中金在線』選為『2010年最受歡迎的港股分析師』。
Phone:
2277 6666

上破50天線機會較高

Monday, December 8, 2025 Views156

港股上周維持窄幅波動態勢,恆指高低波幅只得615點,最高和最低分別見到26264點和25649點,周五收報26085點,按周上升0.9%;國指和科指按周分別上升0.7%和1.1%,三大指數都連升兩周。A股上周也造好,上證指數重企3,900點之上,上周五收報3,902點,按周升0.4%;深成指和創業板指數按周分別升約1.3%和1.9%。中國11月官方製造業採購經理人指數(PMI)較前值提升0.2個百分點至49.2,低於預期的49.4,連續第八個月低於50的榮枯分界線。官方非製造業PMI錄49.5,較十月的50.1下降0.6,主因房地產和住宅服務部門疲弱。由標普全球編製的中國RatingDog製造業PMI也意外回落至收縮區間,11月份從10月份的50.6降至49.9,景氣度自7月份後首次出現惡化。中國11月RatingDog服務業PMI回落至52.1,高於市場預期的51.9,上月為52.6。不過,當月擴張率為最近 5 個月來最弱 。鑒於今年5%左右的年度成長目標似乎已觸手可及,近期經濟下滑並不意味著政府會急於出台額外的刺激措施。

 

美股上周反覆靠穩,AI股拋售告一段落,美國9月關鍵通脹指數符合預期,聯儲局減息預期升溫,恐慌指標VIX指數回落至16以下水平。全周計,標普500指數累升0.3%,道指和納指分別漲0.5%及0.9%。經濟數據方面,ADP報告顯示,美國11月私人企業裁減了3.2萬名員工,其中小型企業受打擊最嚴重。數據遠低於預期的增長4萬個職位。薪酬增長速度也放緩,持續在職的員工年增幅為4.4%,比10月下降了0.1個百分點。不過,美國上周首領失業救濟人數卻由前周21.8萬回落至19.1萬人,低於預期22萬。另外,美國11月標普全球(S&P Global)綜合採購經理人PMI產出指數錄得54.2,與10月的54.6相比變化不大。服務業業務活動指數在11月錄得54.1,低於10月的54.8,也低於先前的初值55,是自6月以來的最低水平。另一方面,美國11月ISM服務業PMI為52.6,高於10月的52.4,在2025年已經第九次處於擴張區間。通脹數據方面,美國9月個人消費開支(PCE)及核心PCE物價指數,按月分別升0.3%及0.2%,均符市場預期。9月PCE物價指數按年升幅由2.7%升至2.8%,符預期;核心PCE物價指數按年升幅由8月2.9%回落至2.8%,同樣符市場預期,令市場維持減息憧憬。

 

說回港股,恆指上周曾經上越50天移動平均線,也曾下破100天線,但最後都突破失敗。恆指夾於50天線和100天線之間窄幅上落,已有一個多月。兩條移動平均線漸漸靠攏,預料未來兩周走勢將有突破。個人仍然相信,在跨年行情帶動下,未來上破50天線機會較高。若確認突破50天線,往上目標分別看26500點和27000點

This report is produced and is being distributed in Hong Kong by Phillip Securities Group with the Securities and Futures Commission (“SFC”) licence under Phillip Securities (HK) LTD and/ or Phillip Commodities (HK) LTD (“Phillip”). Information contained herein is based on sources that Phillip believed to be accurate. Phillip does not bear responsibility for any loss occasioned by reliance placed upon the contents hereof. The information is for informative purposes only and is not intended to or create/induce the creation of any binding legal relations. The information provided do not constitute investment advice, solicitation, purchase or sell any investment product(s). Investments are subject to investment risks including possible loss of the principal amount invested. You should refer to your Financial Advisor for investment advice based on your investment experience, financial situation, any of your particular needs and risk preference. For details of different product's risks, please visit the Risk Disclosures Statement on http://www.phillip.com.hk. Phillip (or employees) may have positions/ interests in relevant investment products. Phillip (or one of its affiliates) may from time to time provide services for, or solicit services or other business from, any company mentioned in this report. The above information is owned by Phillip and protected by copyright and intellectual property Laws. It may not be reproduced, distributed or published for any purpose without prior written consent from Phillip.
Top of Page
Contact Us
Please contact your account executive or call us now.
Research Department
Tel : (852) 2277 6846
Fax : (852) 2277 6565
Email : businessenquiry@phillip.com.hk

Enquiry & Support
Branches
The Complaint Procedures
About Us
Phillip Securities Group
Join Us
Phillip Network
Phillip Post
Phillip Channel
Latest Promotion
新闻稿
E-Check
Login
Investor Notes
Free Subscribe
Contact Us