Louis Wong Commentary

Author

黃瑋傑先生(Louis Wong)
輝立証券董事

見證過去三十多年香港股市每一個牛市和熊市,可謂實戰經驗豐富。現為香港多份財經報章雜誌專欄作家,並為電視台及電台擔任客席主持。個人著作有〈炒得精叻〉、〈投資先知〉及〈股市是平的〉,並獲『中金在線』選為『2010年最受歡迎的港股分析師』。
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20天和100天線有待收復

Monday, December 22, 2025 Views145

20天和100天線有待收復

 

港股上周先跌後回升,恆指在上周二最低見到25086點,跌穿了10月17日低位25145點,之後逐步回升,周五收報25690,但按周仍下跌1.1%。國指和科指按周分別下跌2%和2.8%,三大指數都連跌兩周。A股三大指數表現分化,上證指數持平僅微升1點;深成指跌0.9%;創業板指數跌2.25%。中國11月「三頭馬車」數據均遜預期,11月規模以上工業增加值按年增長4.8%,低於預期的5%,續創2024年8月以來最低;社會消費品零售總額按年增長1.3%,遠低於預期的2.8%,並創2022年12月以來最低水平,增長是近3年最小。首十一月全國固定資產投資按年下降2.6%,跌幅較市場預期2.3%大,也比1-10月的1.7%降幅擴大,為2020年6月以來最大降幅。其中,房地產開發投資按年跌逾15%。至於11月全國城鎮調查失業率為5.1%,符合市場預期。三頭馬車數據顯示經濟整體放緩,消費和投資疲弱,展望2026年政策,預計將維持擴張性財政刺激(預計赤字率維持或升至4%以上,並繼續發行地方債務)、聚焦內需提振和結構改革。今天人民銀行將公布12月一年期及五年期貸款市場報價(LPR)利率,料分別維持3厘及3.5厘。

 

美股三大指數也表現分化,美國11月核心CPI意外下降,加大市場對聯儲局明年減息憧憬。全星期計算,道指跌0.7%,納指升0.5%,標普500指數僅升0.1%。經濟數據方面,美國11月份消費者物價指數年率意外下降至2.7%,低於市場預期的3.1%增幅,亦低於9月份的3%增幅。核心通脹率(剔除波動較大的食品和能源價格)為2.6%。另外,截至12月13日當周,經季節性調整後的首次失業救濟申請人數下降13,000人,至22.4萬人,略低於經濟學家預測為22.5萬人。數據扭轉了前一周的激增,表明勞動力市場在12月仍保持穩定。還有12月密西根大學消費者信心總指數從11月的51上升至52.9,但低於預期的53.5。調查顯示,美國未來一年通脹預期在12月下降至4.2%,為連續第四個月下降,也是近一年來的最低水平。同時,五年期通脹前景連續第二個月下降,12月降至近一年的低位3.2%,低於11月的3.4%。

 

說回港股,恆指在上周一一舉跌穿了10天、20天和100天移動平均線,25000關幸保不失。上周五收復了10天線,20天線(25751點)和100天線(25862點)仍有待收復。

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