Louis Wong Commentary

Author

黃瑋傑先生(Louis Wong)
輝立証券董事

見證過去三十多年香港股市每一個牛市和熊市,可謂實戰經驗豐富。現為香港多份財經報章雜誌專欄作家,並為電視台及電台擔任客席主持。個人著作有〈炒得精叻〉、〈投資先知〉及〈股市是平的〉,並獲『中金在線』選為『2010年最受歡迎的港股分析師』。
Phone:
2277 6666

24500-25300之間上落

Monday, March 30, 2026 Views206

港股上周受地緣政治不確定性與藍籌業績期雙重影響,呈現震盪走低後小幅反彈的態勢。恆生指數失守25000點關,上周五收報24951點,相對前周下跌326點,跌幅1.3%,連跌第四周;國指和科指按周分別累跌1.4%和1.9%,均連跌第二周。

 

滬深股市上周呈現先抑後揚、震盪築底的態勢。儘管周五呈現反彈,但全周主要指數仍錄得累計下跌。上證指數累計跌約1.1%,連跌四星期;深成指跌約0.8%,創業板指數跌約1.7%。經濟數據方面,2026 年 1—2 月份全國規模以上工業企業利潤表現強勁,實現了「開門紅」,顯示經濟復甦勢頭穩健。國家統計局公布數據顯示,今年首兩個月,全國規模以上工業企業實現利潤總額1.02萬億元人民幣,按年增長15.2%,增速較上年全年加快14.6個百分點,創下除疫情特殊年份外,自2018 年以來最強勁的開局。其中高技術製造業利潤按年增長 58.7%;電子設備製造業利潤激增 200%裝備製造業作為「壓艙石」,利潤增長 18.9%,拉動整體利潤增長顯著。不過,國內經濟處於轉型期,不同行業間的利潤恢復仍存在不均衡現象。 同時,中東局勢導致原油及原材料價格近期飆升(油價漲幅約 50%),可能在未來數月對企業毛利造成壓力。

 

美股上周表現疲弱,三大指數均錄得連續第五週下跌。儘管周初受停火談判傳聞帶動一度反彈,但隨著中東戰火升溫及通脹壓力加劇,市場避險情緒於上周五全面爆發,「恐慌指標」VIX指數升逾30點,至31.05點。標普 500 指數更跌穿自 2025 年 5 月以來的 200 天移動平均線,道指與納指雙雙較早前高位累跌一成正式陷入調整區間。全周計,道指跌約1%,標普500指數跌2.1%,納指更挫3.2%。

 

經濟數據方面,截至3月21日當周,經季節性調整後,美國失業救濟初次申請人數增加5,000人,達到21萬人,符合市場預期,顯示勞動力市場保持穩定。不過,密西根大學美國3月消費者信心指數卻從2月的56.6下降至53.3,低於預期的54及初值55.5。伊朗戰爭也讓消費者對未來預期的通貨膨脹更加悲觀。未來一年對通脹的預期向上修訂至3.8%,但消費者對長期通脹的預測仍然維持3.2%。

 

本周市場焦點將集中在持續緊張的中東地緣局勢、聯儲局主席鮑威爾的講話,以及3月非農就業報告。鮑威爾將於本周一美國東部時間上午10:30在哈佛大學發表談話,投資者將密切關注他對中東衝突引發的「通脹衝擊」及利率前景的最新看法。市場預計3月非農就業人數將增加約 4.8萬至5.7萬人(較2月的意外下滑明顯反彈),失業率預計維持在 4.4%-4.5%。 另外,3月ISM製造業(4月1日公布)及服務業PMI(4月3日公布)將揭示高能源成本是否已實質性拖累經濟活動。 

 

說回港股,恆指上周一創出24203點年內新低後,上周三最高回升至25390點,補回周一的下跌裂口,可視為技術性反彈和跌破250天移動平均線的後抽。短期料於24500點和25300點之間波動,觀望地緣政治局勢變化。

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