Louis Wong Commentary

Author

黃瑋傑先生(Louis Wong)
輝立証券董事

見證過去三十多年香港股市每一個牛市和熊市,可謂實戰經驗豐富。現為香港多份財經報章雜誌專欄作家,並為電視台及電台擔任客席主持。個人著作有〈炒得精叻〉、〈投資先知〉及〈股市是平的〉,並獲『中金在線』選為『2010年最受歡迎的港股分析師』。
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以時間消化升幅

Monday, July 27, 2026 Views63

港股恆指上周在25000點水平上下波動,周五收報 24,963,雖未能穩守25000點關口,但總結全周依然累計上升400點或1.6%,連升四周。國指全周累升134點或1.7%。科指全周累升6點或0.14%。滬深股市上周反覆靠穩,三大指數全星期計都上升。上證指數升1.3%,結束兩星期跌勢;深成指升0.5%;創業板指數升1.5%,結束4星期跌勢。為穩定市場預期及聽取各方對「促進資本市場平穩健康發展」的意見,中國證監會主席吳清上周一主持召開投資者座談會。另外,國家財長藍佛安在官媒撰文,要求以更大力度落實財政金融協同促內需一攬子政策,加上多隻國家隊寬基 ETF 放量護盤和五大內險集體發聲看好資本市場,都對股市起到穩定作用,但周四和周五兩日成交顯著萎縮,顯示大市進入縮量修復階段。

 

本周起A股上市公司將密集披露中報業績或中期預告。另外,全球第四大、中國第一大 DRAM 記憶體晶片巨頭長鑫科技(688825.SH)將於本周一(7月27日)正式登陸科創板,這一超級IPO龐大的募資規模對二級市場形成了顯著的「抽水效應」,部分機構選擇在高位拋售現有半導體股票以騰出資金參與新股。隨着長鑫科技正式掛牌,前期打新和機構調倉的「資金抽水壓力」將全面出清。若長鑫科技上市首日展現出強勁的市場溢價,並吸引大量國際和亞太長線基金建倉,或將有效帶動中芯國際、華虹等前期超跌的半導體/代工板塊展開反彈。

 

中東緊張局勢升溫,國際油價一度衝破每桶100美元、美國國債孳息率升至今年高點,美股經歷震盪一周。科技股受「美股七雄(Magnificent Seven)」核心成員業績不如預期及AI資本開支(CapEx)大幅飆升影響,市值蒸發近九千億美元。納指全周下跌2.1%,標普500指數跌0.6%,標普和納指都寫下3月以來首度連兩周下跌。道指跌0.4%,連跌第三周。經濟數據方面,標普全球美國7月製造業PMI由6月53.9輕微回落至53.8,略低於市場預期54.4;服務業PMI則由51.2回升至53.6,高於市場預期51.3。綜合產出指數由6月的51.9升至53.6,高於市場預期52.2,為去年11月以來最快增長。另外,截至7月18日止一周,美國首次申領失業救濟人數減少22,000人至187,000人,為1969年以來最低;四周移動平均值減少7,250人至207,500人,連續第四周下跌。市場本周焦點將鎖定微軟Meta、亞馬遜等AI支出大戶和蘋果、南韓兩大記憶體股的財報,同時關注聯儲局議息會議決策。據CME Fed Watch工具顯示,市場目前定價聯儲局本周加息25個基點的概率約為38%,較一週前的13%大幅跳升

 

說回港股,恆指上周多次上試100天移動平均線功虧一簣。成交縮量(上周四和周五成交額降至3000億元以下)顯示上升動力不足,但回近24800點見到支持,估計會在24800點至25200點之間整固,以時間消化升幅,等待100天線進一步下降(現時已降至25202點)。

 

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