Louis Wong Commentary

Author

黃瑋傑先生(Louis Wong)
輝立証券董事

見證過去三十多年香港股市每一個牛市和熊市,可謂實戰經驗豐富。現為香港多份財經報章雜誌專欄作家,並為電視台及電台擔任客席主持。個人著作有〈炒得精叻〉、〈投資先知〉及〈股市是平的〉,並獲『中金在線』選為『2010年最受歡迎的港股分析師』。
Phone:
2277 6666

本周將迎來「通脹+就業」雙重考驗

Monday, September 28, 2026 Views194

港股上周呈現加速下行、弱勢探底的格局,恆指連跌三日,在上周五最低見到24275點,創階段新低,收報24,510點,相對前周累計跌近1%,科指累計跌逾2%。滬深股市上周呈現寬幅震盪、好淡爭持格局,上證指數3900點關口得而復失,全周累計跌0.6%。深成指累計跌近2.4%。創業板指數累計跌近2.5%。滬深300指數連跌第七周。兩市成交金額由前期的 2 萬億元上方,逐步萎縮至上周四的 1.67 萬億元,反映出明顯的「節前觀望」特徵,部分多頭資金在十一國慶與中秋長假前選擇減倉防禦。

 

本周是十一黃金周長假前的最後 3 個交易日(10月1日至10月8日為國慶長假休市),市場將迎來較大規模的解禁考驗。據統計,本周將有 59 只股票迎來解禁,合計解禁市值達 1,040億元人民幣。另外,本周將公布中國規模以上工業企業利潤、官方和Rating Dog PMI 數據。市場關注第三季度末內需修復、反內卷政策落地後的企業實質盈利改善情況。若製造業數據向好,將為節後的市場提供有力的基本面支撐。

 

根據2010年以來的歷史數據統計, A股在十一長假過後表現出非常明顯的季節性規律:國慶連假後首個交易日的上漲機率高達約七成。節後 5 個交易日的上漲機率在 60% 至 80% 之間,平均漲幅約 2%。

 

美股上周經歷了劇烈的好淡爭持與波動,隨著新任聯儲局主席沃什及多位官員接連發放鷹派言論,年底前再加息的預期重壓市場,導致全球債市遭到拋售。美國10年期國債收益率一度飆升至 5.225% 的 19 年新高,30 年期美債收益率更觸及 5.5% 創 2004 年以來新高。上周四及周五地緣政治局勢迎來轉折,美伊就重開霍爾木茲海峽展開談判,促使油油價回落,美股上周五迎來強勁報復性反彈。納指全周累升2.1%,並錄得連續第二周上升。標普500指數升1.2%。道指上漲 0.3% 終結連續三周的跌勢。

 

上周公布的數據顯示,美國經濟增長相對強勁、高利率耐受力高,但通脹風險未消。本周美股將迎來最重要的「通脹 + 就業」雙重考驗。周三將公布美國 8 月 PCE 物價指數,預測年率上升3.7%,與7月持平;8月核心PCE預測年率上升3.3%,也與7月持平。周五將公布9月美國非農就業報告,預期新增就業約 10 萬人,失業率維持在 4.1%。

 

說回港股,恆指上周接連失守 10 天線及 20 天線等多條主要移動平均線,並創出24275點的階段新低,料會作出技術性反彈,或將補回上周五介於24648點和24537點之間的下跌裂口。恒指必須先收復並企穩在 10 天線(約 24788點)之上,才能暫時擺脫「續尋階段新低」的弱態,否則將繼續下行,下試24000點/23920點目標。

This report is produced and is being distributed in Hong Kong by Phillip Securities Group with the Securities and Futures Commission (“SFC”) licence under Phillip Securities (HK) LTD and/ or Phillip Commodities (HK) LTD (“Phillip”). Information contained herein is based on sources that Phillip believed to be accurate. Phillip does not bear responsibility for any loss occasioned by reliance placed upon the contents hereof. The information is for informative purposes only and is not intended to or create/induce the creation of any binding legal relations. The information provided do not constitute investment advice, solicitation, purchase or sell any investment product(s). Investments are subject to investment risks including possible loss of the principal amount invested. You should refer to your Financial Advisor for investment advice based on your investment experience, financial situation, any of your particular needs and risk preference. For details of different product's risks, please visit the Risk Disclosures Statement on http://www.phillip.com.hk. Phillip (or employees) may have positions/ interests in relevant investment products. Phillip (or one of its affiliates) may from time to time provide services for, or solicit services or other business from, any company mentioned in this report. The above information is owned by Phillip and protected by copyright and intellectual property Laws. It may not be reproduced, distributed or published for any purpose without prior written consent from Phillip.
Top of Page
Contact Us
Please contact your account executive or call us now.
Research Department
Tel : (852) 2277 6846
Fax : (852) 2277 6565
Email : businessenquiry@phillip.com.hk

Enquiry & Support
Branches
The Complaint Procedures
About Us
Phillip Securities Group
Join Us
Phillip Network
Phillip Post
Phillip Channel
Latest Promotion
新闻稿
E-Check
Login
Contact Us