Louis Wong Commentary

Author

黃瑋傑先生(Louis Wong)
輝立証券董事

見證過去三十多年香港股市每一個牛市和熊市,可謂實戰經驗豐富。現為香港多份財經報章雜誌專欄作家,並為電視台及電台擔任客席主持。個人著作有〈炒得精叻〉、〈投資先知〉及〈股市是平的〉,並獲『中金在線』選為『2010年最受歡迎的港股分析師』。
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2277 6666

企穩先要重越24000 及補回下跌裂口

Monday, October 5, 2026 Views223

上周港股只有四個交易日,周初恆指仍在24,500點附近拉鋸,踏入10月首個交易日卻大幅下挫,失守24000點,最低見到23865點,收報23,972點,全周下跌538點、跌幅2.2%,連跌四周。國企指數收8,030點,全周跌135點或1.7%,同樣連跌四周;恆生科技指數收4,157點,全周跌153點或3.6%。拖累來自環球債市拋售,英國30年債息一度升至6厘,是1998年以來首次;美國30年債息周內高見約5.69厘,10年期一度觸及5.33厘,同為2002年以來高位。

 

滬深股市上周只有三個交易日,10月1日起進入國慶休市,要到10月8日才重新開市。上證指數全周跌約1.2%,深成指跌約3.2%。政策上,國慶節前最具體的舉措是住房貸款貼息,10月1日起實施,暫定一年,資金規模不設上限,這解釋了內房和內銀股在成長股回調時能逆勢走強。貨幣政策方面,央行三季度例會刪去「跨周期」表述、更強調逆周期調節,並下調抵押補充貸款(PSL)利率0.25個百分點,更好激勵政策性銀行支持實體經濟、服務國家戰略,並加強對「六張網」建設的金融支持。經濟數據方面,9月官方製造業和非採購經理採購經理指數(PMI)紛紛升回擴張區間。其中,製造業PMI為50.1,符合市場預期,比8月上升0.3個百分點。非製造業商務活動指數為50.2,高於市場預期的49.2,比8月上升1.2個百分點。另外,經季節性調整的RatingDog中國通用製造業採購經理人指數(PMI)在9月錄得52.1,高於市場預期的51.7,並且連續第十個月保持在50榮枯線之上。整體來看,第三季末製造業擴張步伐繼續加快。歷史上國慶前一周偏弱、節後第一周上漲概率較高,統計2011年至2025年(剔除2024年)節後首周全A上漲概率約79%、平均漲幅為1.7%,但第二周又轉弱。

 

美股方面,美國9月非農新增僅2.9萬人,遠低於市場預期的9萬,8月新增職位向下修訂至增加133,000個,7月職位則修訂為減少10,000個,合共淨減少60,000個職位。9月失業率由8月的4.1%升至4.2%,市場原預期維持不變。10月再加息的概率由一周前的64%急降至22%。不過,債息高居不下,對股市帶來一定壓力,道指與標普按周分別累跌 1.3%與 0.3%,但納指逆勢上揚 0.5%,連續第 3 周上升。

 

本周關注點有聯儲會議紀要及多位官員講話將透露加息路徑。經濟數據日程上,本周一有9月標普全球服務業PMI終值及ISM非製造業PMI;周二有8月國際貿易數據及三年期國債標售;周四有初請失業救濟金。本周業績較為稀疏,周中稍後才有星座品牌、李維斯等公司。真正决定股市方向的仍是利率:若服務業通脹和油價不再升温,上周五的“加息概率回落”可以延續,標普有條件試前高。反之若ISM物價分項偏熱、或中東局勢再推高油價,長端收益率回到5.3%上方,將壓過就業放緩的利好。

 

說回港股,A股復市前,成交料繼續偏淡,外圍債息和美股隔夜走勢的影響力會更大。技術上,23,800點是近端支持(10月2日低位已到23,865點),失守則下看23,500點;上方先要重越24,000點,以及補回上周五介於24332點和24099點之間的下跌裂口,較有意義的阻力在24,500至24,600點,亦即10天線一帶。

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