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吳袓同先生(JordanWood)
輝立証券及期貨市場經理

吳祖同現任本公司高級業務及市場經理, 策略師, 從事証券及恆指期貨交易已有二十多年,尤其在技術分析方面經驗豐富。自2002年開始每週在本欄發表期指走勢技術分析, 廣受客戶和讀者歡迎。
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期指走勢技術分析 2 January 2018

Tuesday, January 02, 2018 Views1587

2 January 2018

 

各位新年好!2017年是由頭升到尾的一年,恒生指數上升35.99%,估計大家收穫不錯,是否跑贏大市,各位要自行計數。參與衍生工具市場買賣,最重要是資金管理和風險管理,其次才是技術分析。本欄長期以來只討論技術分析,很少涉及其他,實為不足,希望今後多些交流資金管理和風險管理。

 

12月最後一天交易,期指以29948收市,是12月內的最高收市價,排列在2017年的第二高收市價,最高收市紀錄是1122日的30046。自127日低位28149上來,過去15個交易日12天是升市,僅3天下跌,最近的紀錄是連升8天,市勢非常強勁。九周隨機指數12月初發出沽貨信號後,3D%向下移動了四周,最低見過50.18,沒有跌破50,上周已回頭向上,9K%64.443D%57.31;另外保利加通道的上線明顯上翹,本周將上移到30200-30300;九周RSI1185.77超買位置回順到55.61又再攀升,上週報70.42。觀察周線圖RSI,長達一年的升浪,居然沒有出現高位背馳,這一現象足以推論到十一月高位30208還不是中期浪頂,將來中期浪頂出現時,周線圖RSI會處在背馳位置!

 

日線圖技術指標方面,幾個看點都是利好後市。STC1211日發出買入信號,當日期指收市報28906,上週五18K%=96.98, 5D%=82.91,仍處在安全持好倉階段;MACD是在1220日發出雙牛買入信號,當日期指收市報29301,之後MACD加快拋離其Signal線,上週五Diff95.95;保利加通道的中線經過十多天向下移動,上週三再次回頭向上,說明動力方向確認向上,保利加通道寬度%BW再次拉寬,說明上升動力在增加中。綜上分析本周入市應以好倉為主,沽空不宜!

 

波浪分析:長週末有充足的時間來思考,回顧過去一年有關港股的波浪分析,有些地方要堅持,例如牛市第一期的[1]浪上升內部將由斜線三角形五浪上升組成,即(A)-(B)-(C)-(D)-(E)結構,因為找不到推反的理由;有些地方要修改,因為與市場走出來的結果有矛盾,其中主要的修改是(C)浪的內部結構,(C)浪內部由A-B-C三浪上升組成不變,因為這是斜線三角形的基本結構,但是A浪的終點位置卻有必要修改,修改的原因是周線圖技術指標顯示30208還不是中期浪頂,這樣30208就不可能是(C)-C浪的終點。今日刊出的期指周線圖,將2016年底21477開始的(C)-A浪看成是一組五浪上升,30208(3)浪浪頂,(3)浪長度是6502點,是(1)浪長度2737點的2.38倍,自30208跌到28149(4)浪下跌,結構上(2)浪複雜(4)浪簡單,符合交替原則,(4)浪下跌了2059點,是(3)浪升幅的31.7%,自28149向上是(5)浪上升,若(5)浪的長度等於(1)浪,目標是30886。詳細請看今日的附圖。A浪完成之後將進入B浪調整,最後還有C浪上升才結束整個(C)浪。日線圖中可將各浪的內部結構看得更清楚些,各浪的長度和行時間已在圖上列明。

 

綜上分析,目前應處在(5)-3-(iii)上升中,1214日的29439(5)-1浪浪頂,15日的28736(5)-2浪浪底,19日的293813-(i)浪浪頂,21日的291333-(ii)浪浪底,(iii)浪長度若是(i)浪長度的1.618倍,(iii)浪終點在30177(iii)浪長度若是(i)浪長度的2倍,(iii)浪終點在30423。本周入市策略:好倉為主。由於上週五尾市十五分鐘圖RSI已充分消化了之前的超買情況,回落到42附近,今日開市若因美股下跌而低開,應立即好倉入市。好倉可以是直接買入期指,也可以沽出即月put或買入即月Call, 沽put建議29600行使價,買Call建議29800或30000行使價。買入期指及沽put的風險管理可參考29730,收市價跌破29730應止蝕或對沖,long call的後續管理要求比較高,若沒有把握避免採用。

 

以上純屬個人意見,不構成買賣邀請,本人吳祖同為證監會持牌人,本人及本人之客戶會隨時買賣上述分析之相關產品。

 
 
 
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