Market Brief

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Author

許偉龍先生(Anthony Hui)
交易員

現任職輝立交易員,對投資股票經驗豐富。本人樂意為客戶提供投資分析及買賣策略。歡迎各位來電交流心得。
Phone:
36533066

中國蒙牛乳業有限公司 (02319.HK)

Wednesday, June 19, 2019 Views750

集團主要從事在中國生產及銷售優質乳製品,包括液體奶產品(如超高溫滅菌奶(「UHT奶」)、乳飲料及酸奶)、冰淇淋、奶粉及其他乳製品(如奶酪等)。

 

基本資料 :

現價: $29.85

市值: 1,173.33億

市盈率: 33.65倍

周息率: 0.69%

52週高/低: $31.3 /$20.9

10天/50天/250天平均價 : $29.73/ $29.25/ $25.54

 

主要股東 :

中糧乳業投資有限公司(31.43%)

 

業務回顧:

截至2018年12月月底止全年業績,蒙牛乳業的收入增加14.7%至人民幣689.77億元。公司權益持有者的淨利潤增長48.6%至人民幣30.43億元。 業績符合市場預期。

 

近期股價走勢:

公司自18/3升穿26元的多頂阻力後,股價穩步上揚。公司公佈業績後,股價從大約26.09元起步,至16/5/2019,高見31.09元,創52周新高後緩緩回落,現仍站於10天丶20天丶50天丶100天及250天各條主要平均線之上。

 

評論:

第一,發改委近月制定了《國產嬰幼兒配方乳粉提升行動方案》,「讓國產嬰幼兒配方乳粉產量穩步增加,力爭自給水平穩定在 60%以上。同時產品質素必須安全可靠,消費者信心和滿意度提高;產業結構亦要進一步優化,行業集中度和技術裝備水平繼續提升;產品競爭力進一步增強,市場銷售額顯著提高,中國品牌嬰幼兒配方乳粉在國內市場的排名明顯提升」。而蒙牛乳業作為中國領先的乳製品生產商之一對旗下產品的有嚴格的品質要求,故帶給消費者信心的保證。加上公司手頭現金充足,較同業容易通過合併拓展市場及完善奶源的質量。

 

第二,恆指在過去的5月份由29699點下跌至26901點,累計跌2798點。然而公司股價在波動市中保持著強勢,並下創52周新高。相信蒙牛這類內需股仍然是資金吸納的對象。

 

第三,公司於2018年5月和阿里雲合作共建智慧供應鏈項目。以大數據分析為基礎,實現供應鏈的智能化、網絡化和自動化技術與管理,基於實際銷售量的大數據,實現更精準的需求預測和更高效的生產排期,及更完善的營銷資源規劃,從而提升供應鏈運營效率,並有助公司降低其成本。

 

第四,目前市盈率33.65倍,略高於其他同業,待回落至30倍以下,為吸納的時機。

 

 

 

買賣策略
買入價: $26.6

目標價: $32

止蝕價: $23.94

 

參考資料來源:

公司年報2018、發改委公告、阿斯達克財經網

 

 

註:本人許偉龍為證監會持牌人士。截至本評論文章發表日止,本人及/或其有聯繫者並無持有全部提及之証券的所有相關財務權益。

 

This report is produced and is being distributed in Hong Kong by Phillip Securities Group with the Securities and Futures Commission (“SFC”) licence under Phillip Securities (HK) LTD and/ or Phillip Commodities (HK) LTD (“Phillip”). Information contained herein is based on sources that Phillip believed to be accurate. Phillip does not bear responsibility for any loss occasioned by reliance placed upon the contents hereof. The information is for informative purposes only and is not intended to or create/induce the creation of any binding legal relations. The information provided do not constitute investment advice, solicitation, purchase or sell any investment product(s). Investments are subject to investment risks including possible loss of the principal amount invested. You should refer to your Financial Advisor for investment advice based on your investment experience, financial situation, any of your particular needs and risk preference. For details of different product's risks, please visit the Risk Disclosures Statement on http://www.phillip.com.hk. Phillip (or employees) may have positions/ interests in relevant investment products. Phillip (or one of its affiliates) may from time to time provide services for, or solicit services or other business from, any company mentioned in this report. The above information is owned by Phillip and protected by copyright and intellectual property Laws. It may not be reproduced, distributed or published for any purpose without prior written consent from Phillip.
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