Market Brief

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Author

許偉龍先生(Anthony Hui)
高級交易員

現任職輝立高級交易員,對投資股票經驗豐富。本人樂意為客戶提供投資分析及買賣策略。歡迎各位來電交流心得。
Phone:
36533066

百勝中國控股有限公司(09987.HK)

Monday, March 2, 2026 Views87

百勝中國控股有限公司(09987.HK)

公司簡介:

主要在中國大陸經營餐廳業務,旗下餐飲品牌包括肯德基與必勝客(透過獨家經營和授權經營權)等。

 

基本資料 :

現價: $432

市值: 1,529.88億

52週高/低: $451.2 /$324

10天/50天/100天平均價 : $431.28/ $393.86/ $373.53

業務回顧:

截至2025年12月31日止的年度業績,總收入117.97億美元 ,按年增加4%。錄得淨利潤9.29億美元,增長2%。

評論:

第一,啟動「RGM 3.0」戰略

公司的未來發展基於清晰的 「RGM 3.0」戰略框架,圍繞韌性、成長、護城河三大核心,通過「前端分層、後端聚合」的方式,實現多品牌、多模式的精細化擴張 。

量化未來展望 (2026-2030年)

門店網絡:雄心勃勃的擴張計劃

 

-2026年目標:門店總數超過 20,000家(淨新增超1,900家) 。

-2030年願景:門店總數目標超過 30,000家 。

-加盟策略:2026年新店中,加盟店佔比將提升至 40-50%,以輕資產模式加速滲透低線城市 。

 

第二,慷慨且可持續的現金回饋

2026年計劃:繼續向股東回饋 15億美元(含股息和回購) 。2027年起新政:計劃將約 100% 的自由現金流(扣除子公司少數股東股息後)回饋股東。預計2027和2028年平均每年回饋 9億至10億美元 。

 

第三, 創新引擎:驅動未來的具體舉措

除了宏觀數字,公司未來的增長還依賴於以下具體的創新業態:

-肯悅咖啡:快速擴張至2,200家,成為增長最快業務單元 。

-必勝客WOW模式:通過精簡菜單、聚焦一人食,將客單價從120元下探至60-70元,成功將客單價下探,助力下沉新市場 。

-「雙子星」 (Gemini) 模式:肯德基與必勝客並排開設,共享廚房員工,單對門店資本開支僅 70-80萬元人民幣,預計2026年加速發展 。

 

買賣策略
買入價: $430 (除淨前)

目標價: $510

止蝕價: $387

 

資料來源: 2025年度年度業績公告 ,新浪財經

 

註:本人許偉龍為證監會持牌人士。截至本評論文章發表日止,本人及/或其有聯繫者並無持有全部提及之証券的所有相關財務權益。

This report is produced and is being distributed in Hong Kong by Phillip Securities Group with the Securities and Futures Commission (“SFC”) licence under Phillip Securities (HK) LTD and/ or Phillip Commodities (HK) LTD (“Phillip”). Information contained herein is based on sources that Phillip believed to be accurate. Phillip does not bear responsibility for any loss occasioned by reliance placed upon the contents hereof. The information is for informative purposes only and is not intended to or create/induce the creation of any binding legal relations. The information provided do not constitute investment advice, solicitation, purchase or sell any investment product(s). Investments are subject to investment risks including possible loss of the principal amount invested. You should refer to your Financial Advisor for investment advice based on your investment experience, financial situation, any of your particular needs and risk preference. For details of different product's risks, please visit the Risk Disclosures Statement on http://www.phillip.com.hk. Phillip (or employees) may have positions/ interests in relevant investment products. Phillip (or one of its affiliates) may from time to time provide services for, or solicit services or other business from, any company mentioned in this report. The above information is owned by Phillip and protected by copyright and intellectual property Laws. It may not be reproduced, distributed or published for any purpose without prior written consent from Phillip.
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