Market Brief

The articles are produced in Chinese only.

Author

區良鍵先生(George Au)
業務副董事

工商管理(財務系)畢業, 有十多年投資經驗, 經歷過股災及大大小小的升/跌市. 善於配合基礎因素及技術分析, 整合不同投資工具, 在不同市況下作出相應投資決定. 熟悉本地投資市場, 尤精於股票期權、指數期權及期貨投資.
Phone:
3925 9237

跌完見底? 還是由希臘引爆最後炸彈??

Friday, July 10, 2015 Views13481

8/7 港股急跌, 幸9/7 升回一部份, 看好投資者不致太傷. 大市是否跌完見底? 在這話題前請先看看前文提及風險管理策略的效果.

 

有關策略內容:

http://www.poems.com.hk/zh-hk/research-and-analysis/market-brief/?id=8789

http://www.poems.com.hk/zh-hk/research-and-analysis/market-brief/?id=8800

 

期權組合策略簡述:

Short 7月行使價 26,400 Put 3張

Long 7月行使價 25,400 Put 8張

(大權 $50/點, 細權 $10/點)

 期權組合效果:

 

 

雖然 8/7 大市在收市前從低位急升, 但以收市價計, 有關期權組合亦值 逾8,600點.

如能在指數最低位平倉, 參看有關期權的最高價, 期權組合值 11,300多點.

在波動市及有關期權已成為極價內期權, 組合內的2個期權的最高價或在不同時段成交, 為減少有關影響, 可參考有關期權的價內值, 期權組合亦值 10,400多點. (以上數值只會計少, 不會計多, 因 Long Put 相對較貼價, 溢價較 Short Put 高)

 

部份讀者可能認為6/7文章的效果不夠吸引, 以上組合在大市跌近千點時, 只能賺到約1,000點的利潤, 如同時持有股票, 這組合只能追回持有股票的損失(假設所持股票走勢及幅度和大市相若).

 

實際上這組合的威力在8/7才真正顯現. 7月2號/6號至 7月8號, 大市跌2,xxx-3,xxx點, 但以上組合利潤基本上在8,000點, 乃至 10,000點以上. 期權組合的利潤是大市跌幅的2倍幾 – 3倍幾, 如果用開倉時付出的期權金計算, 2/7及6/7 開倉成本只是167點及364點, 和約1萬點的利潤比較, 升幅的百份比是多少, 投資者可自行計算.

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如有運用以上方法的投資者, 即使所持有股票下跌, 在這輪跌市中可能不單不用輸錢, 更有可能嬴大錢. (如以上組合開倉後大市上升呢? 以結算日計, 最大損失不過是開倉時所付的一百幾點或三百幾點吧) 但有關風險其實並未完結, 星期日將是希臘的所謂死線, 如希臘提出的方案不被歐洲多國接納, 甚至被踼出歐元區, 大市有很大機會無秩序地下跌. 持有股票投資者可能已在8/7大市急跌時把以上期權組合平倉止膁, 手上再無持有對沖工具. 再者, 經過一輪大跌後, 以上組合效用某方面亦有所減弱. 如投資者持有好倉 (e.g. 股票), 而未有安排任何對沖工具, 可考慮 Long 一些指數或股票的 Put Option, 以免如希臘真的爆煲時, 出現難以預計的損失.

 

有關以上期權組合的詳細成本, 潛在損失及利潤詳情, 請參看3/7的文章.

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註1: 具體及即時買賣策略只會向個人客戶提出.

市況可隨時變化, 網站文章不一定會及時更新. 投資者宜向個人經紀查詢意見.

 

註2:期貨及期權價格可升可跌, 投資可賺可蝕.

期貨及期權買賣有槓桿效應, 可放大潛在利潤及損失. 潛在最大損失可以無限.

 以上純屬個人意見,不構成任何買賣邀請。本人區良鍵為證監會持牌人,本人及/或其有聯繫者會隨時就不同情況買賣上述分析的相關資產.

 

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