Summary

At 14:28 on May 12, 2008, an 8 magnitude earthquake took place in Wenchuan County, Sichuan Province. As of May 27, released data showing the earthquake has caused 65,080 people confirmed dead, 360,058 wounded, and 23,150 missing. It is estimated that the number of victims will be over 80,000.

China Banking Regulatory Commission announced a notice on May 23: for borrower who suffered huge loss caused by earthquake and could not get insurance compensation, or through insurance repayment or secured debt while still can not pay the debt, then the debt should be considered as bad debt and be timely recognized, meanwhile the bank cards also should be processed simultaneously.

We think the earthquakes impact on listed banking companies is limited, while may exceed the market expectation of lower than 2%.At the same time, impact on large state-owned banks will be larger than joint-stock banks.

Limited earthquake impact

Owing to the rare personal loan businesses in serious suffered areas, we think the impact will be limited. On contrast, negative effects are mainly embodied in following two aspects:

Firstly, the operation expense will rise. Most of the banks employees in different affected areas were reported with casualty and most of the operation business outlets also had loss of assets in certain extend. According to incomplete statistics, branches for state-owned commercial banks and joint-stock banks in Sichuan totaled 1,447, among these, the offices in epicenter region like Aba, Mianyang, Deyang and other areas were 273, which mainly were the branches and offices for Agricultural Bank of China, Bank of China, Industrial and Commercial Bank of China and China

Construction Bank. According to estimate, staff cost and management expense for banks will add RMB 2-4 billion.

Secondly, the loss from company loan. The estimated impact is also limited. As at the end of Q1, Sichuan provincial financial institutions various types Renminbi loan balance totaled RMB 969.42 billion, accounted for 3.53% of RMB 27.5 trillion for the whole country.

According to data released on Sichuan Provincial Governments website, the serious suffered areas financial institutions loan totaled RMB18.9 billion in 2006, the sub-serious areas volume was RMB 66.2 billion, respectively accounted for 2.84% and 8.45% for the total loan amount for Sichuan Province that year. Considering that Sichuan Provinces loan balance in Q1 2008 rose 21% than the year-end of 2006, while assuming loss rate for disaster area is 90%, for sub-serious area is 40%, then calculated loan loss for financial institutions will be RMB 52.6 billion. If the insurance and government may shoulder 50% or more for the losses, the financial institutions need to handle about RBM 26 billion, which is just about 3.94% of 2007 pre-tax profit for banking and financial institutions. Meanwhile, the banking industry will maintain a rapid growth momentum in 2008, and then the loss rate will be controlled within 3%.

Table 1: Loan scale for disaster areas accounted for 11% for Sichuan Province (2006 data)

Sources: Sichuan Statistics Bureau ，Phillip Securities

More losses for large state-owned banks

Among the different banks, loan losses for Agricultural Bank of China and Rural Credit Cooperatives in Sichuan dwarfed others, and these institutions had already estimated the bad loans would be added for more than RMB 6 billion. For the listed banks, losses for large stated-owned banks should be larger than joint-stock banks.

Figure 1: Different banks Sichuan loan market share comparison

Sources: Company data，Phillip Securities

It is estimated that Industrial and Commercial Bank of China will be affected more. Calculating on basis of RMB 26 billion losses and 26% market share, losses for Industrial and Commercial Bank of China is nearly RMB 7 billion, which means credit cost rate for loan business may rise 15 basis points or more, and the affected pre-tax profit is probably above 4%.

Reconstruction loan may compensate partial losses

But it needs to be pointed out that Liu Mingkang, President for China Banking Regulatory Commission recently visited and investigated banking earthquake relief works in Sichuan disaster area, and expressed, as long as in conformity with relevant planning and demand, loan scale for disaster area can not implemented with original restrictions. This means the loan limitation for disaster area will be relaxed, which may partially compensate the loan losses under the background of domestic banking sectors net interest spread keeps rising, and the extent may be more than 10% in 2008.

Taking Industrial and Commercial Bank of China as an example, on the afternoon of May 19, the bank signed a post-disaster reconstruction financing cooperative agreement with Chengdu Municipal Government. The agreement will generate about RMB 20 billion specialized loan and relevant integrated financial services. Calculated on around 3% net interest spread, the loan will generate RMB 600 million profits annually.

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