Louis Wong Commentary

Author

黃瑋傑先生(Louis Wong)
輝立証券董事

見證過去三十多年香港股市每一個牛市和熊市,可謂實戰經驗豐富。現為香港多份財經報章雜誌專欄作家,並為電視台及電台擔任客席主持。個人著作有〈炒得精叻〉、〈投資先知〉及〈股市是平的〉,並獲『中金在線』選為『2010年最受歡迎的港股分析師』。
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調整還是跌浪開始?

Monday, April 7, 2025 Views524

港股連跌四周,恆指在上周四最低見到22638,收報22850,相對前周下跌了577點或2.5%,同時也補回了3月5日的上升裂口並失守23000。國指和科指按周分別下跌2.2%和3.5%,也都連跌四周。滬深股市方面,上證指數上周四收報3342,按周下跌0.3%,跌幅相對溫和。深成指和滬深300按周分別下跌2.3%和1.4%。上周公布的經濟數據都優於預期,其中,3月官方製造業採購經理指數為50.5,比上月上升0.3個百分點,略高於預期的50.4;服務業經營活動指數從2月份的51.4上升至51.9,好於預期的51.5,連續27個月在50之上。財新中國3月製造業PMI為51.2,較2月上升0.4個百分點,亦高於預期的50.6,創去年12月以來新高;財新中國3月服務業PMI錄得51.9,較2月上升0.5個百分點,高於預期的51.5,並創逾三個月新高。

不過,由於星期五是清明節假期,港股和滬深股市都未完全反映特朗普對等關稅所帶來的衝擊。美股在上周四和周五連續兩日暴瀉,市值蒸發逾六萬億美元。道指兩日累跌近4000點,上周五收報38314,總結一周跌7.9%;標普500指數收報5074,按周跌9.1%;納指收報15587,全周跌10%,從高位累計跌超過22%,進入技術性熊市。俗稱「恐慌指數」的VIX指數升逾40,觸及2024年8月5日以來最高盤中水平。

經濟數據方面,3月非農職位增加22.8萬份,遠超市場預期的13.7萬份,亦高於前值自15.1萬下修為11.7萬份。不過,失業率卻意外地上升至4.2%,高於預期的4.1%。回到關稅問題,中國已宣布反制措施,包括對所有美國商品加徵34%關稅,以及制裁27家美國企業、禁止6家美國企業的農產品禽類製品進口和立案調查最少兩家美國企業。若中美雙方在關稅問題上企硬,美國今年經濟增長率很大機會由正轉負,而中國今年經濟增長恐削半。

說回港股,港股ADR預計恆指今日將低開1834點,報21015,亦確認由1月低位18671展開的升浪已於3月高位24874結束。該升浪共升6203點,如調整升幅的0.618,恆指將見到21040。所以,如能守住21000,則仍可視為調整。若21000確認失守,恐怕是另一個跌浪的開始。


本人黃瑋傑為証監會持牌人士。截至本評論文章發表日止,本人及/或其有聯繫者並無持有全部提及之証券的所有相關財務權益.

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