Louis Wong Commentary

Author

黃瑋傑先生(Louis Wong)
輝立証券董事

見證過去三十多年香港股市每一個牛市和熊市,可謂實戰經驗豐富。現為香港多份財經報章雜誌專欄作家,並為電視台及電台擔任客席主持。個人著作有〈炒得精叻〉、〈投資先知〉及〈股市是平的〉,並獲『中金在線』選為『2010年最受歡迎的港股分析師』。
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下行趨勢將持續

Monday, December 4, 2017 Views3399

港股上周顯著回落,恆指在上周五最低見到29029,收報29074,按周下跌了792點,跌幅約2.7%,結束了連續四周的升勢.國指在上周五最低見到11432,收報11449,周跌幅約3.9%.恆指上周下跌,很大程度是受騰訊(700)拖累,其股價在過去五個交易天累跌7.4%,市值蒸發近2930億元,除了受恆指季檢基金大規模調倉影響,亦受到外圍科技股下跌所拖累.

 

受重磅科技股下跌影響,美股納指上周下跌了0.6%,是自9月6日以來跌幅最大的一周.不過,道指和標普500指數仍維持強勢,周升幅分別為2.9%和1.5%,反映投資者正在換馬,而非全面看淡.美國參議院通過1.4萬億美元減稅方案,稅改有望在聖誕節前完成,消息利好股市.然而,美國前國家安全顧問弗林供認曾就個人與俄羅斯方面的接觸向美國聯邦調查局作了偽證,引發市場對美國政局的憂慮,令美股在上周五中段一度急挫,相信短期內仍會為美股帶來波動.

 

A股上周亦表現偏軟,上證綜指和深證成指分別多次跌近3300和11000的心理關口,而滬深300則失守4000大關,上周五收報3998.年底前基金調整持倉,加上12月和明年1月將迎來解禁高峰,解禁規模分別為2939億元和5670億元人民幣,合計解禁規模約達8600億元人民幣,將為股市帶來壓力.經濟數據方面,11月份中國官方和財新製造業採購經理指數出現分歧,為經濟增長前景帶來不明朗因素.國家統計局公布數據顯示,11月份製造業PMI為51.8,比10月份上升0.2個百分點,但財新製造業PMI卻較10月份回落0.2個百分點至50.8,降至五個月以來最低.

 

說回港股,恆指自於11月22日創出30200年內高位後,便形成明顯的下調走勢,目前已跌穿10天20天線,9天相對強弱指數亦跌破50中軸降至42,是今年9月28日以來最低水平,顯示下行趨勢仍將持續,可能下試50天線的支持.現時50天線大概處於28670水平,若未來下試50天線,將大約由年內高位回調約5%.

 


本人黃瑋傑為証監會持牌人士。截至本評論文章發表日止,本人及/或其有聯繫者並無持有全部提及之証券的所有相關財務權益.

 

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