Louis Wong Commentary

Author

黃瑋傑先生(Louis Wong)
輝立証券董事

見證過去三十多年香港股市每一個牛市和熊市,可謂實戰經驗豐富。現為香港多份財經報章雜誌專欄作家,並為電視台及電台擔任客席主持。個人著作有〈炒得精叻〉、〈投資先知〉及〈股市是平的〉,並獲『中金在線』選為『2010年最受歡迎的港股分析師』。
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嘗試回補下跌裂口

Monday, February 12, 2018 Views3988

港股上周繼續大幅下滑,恆指失守三萬大關,上周五最低見到29129,收報29507,按周下跌了3095點,跌幅達9.5%,是連續第二周下跌.國指失守萬二關口,上周五最低見到11680,收報11902,周跌幅達12.1%,也是連跌兩周.

 

美股方面,雖然上周五止跌回升,但全周計數,道指仍下跌了5.2%,是自2016年1月以來的最大單周跌幅;標準普爾500指數和納指按周分別下跌5.2%和5.1%.由於市況呈現反彈,Cboe波幅指數在上周五回落13.2%至29.06%,但仍屬偏高水平,反映市場情緒仍然虛怯.這次美股由高位大幅下滑,主要源於市場對通脹和加息的憂慮,美國十年期國債孳息上周五繼續攀升至2.86%水平.如果未來債息繼續攀升,相信美股仍會面對沽壓.

 

A股方面,上證綜指一度失守3100,上周五最低見到3062,收報3129,按周下跌了9.6%;滬深300最低見到3759,收報3840,按周下跌10%;深證成指最低見到9868,收報10001,周跌幅為8.5%.除A股跟隨外圍大幅波動外,人民幣兌美元匯價上周亦呈現大幅波動,在岸人民幣兌美元匯價在上周四一度暴跌超過750基點,主要由於1月份中國進口同比大幅增長30.2%,而進口僅增長6%,令貿易順差大幅收窄近60%.雖然外貿數據差於市場預期,但1月份CPI和PPI數據卻符合預期------全國居民消費價格同比上漲1.5%,漲幅比上月回落0.3個百分點;全國工業生產者出廠價格同比上漲4.3%,漲幅較上月回落0.6個百分點------顯示整體通脹壓力不大.

 

說回港股,恆指由1月歷數高位33484回落,上周五最低跌至29129,出現了兩個下跌裂口,9天相對強弱指數跌至20水平,已呈現超賣.本周若能在100天線(29600)水平盤穩,應有望作出技術性反彈,嘗試補回上周五的下跌裂口的一部分,該下跌裂口闊572點,界於30251和29679之間.


本人黃瑋傑為証監會持牌人士。截至本評論文章發表日止,本人及/或其有聯繫者並無持有全部提及之証券的所有相關財務權益.

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