Louis Wong Commentary

Author

黃瑋傑先生(Louis Wong)
輝立証券董事

見證過去三十多年香港股市每一個牛市和熊市,可謂實戰經驗豐富。現為香港多份財經報章雜誌專欄作家,並為電視台及電台擔任客席主持。個人著作有〈炒得精叻〉、〈投資先知〉及〈股市是平的〉,並獲『中金在線』選為『2010年最受歡迎的港股分析師』。
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回補第一個下跌裂口

Monday, February 26, 2018 Views2948

港股在農曆新年假期後持續回升,恆指在上周三最高見到31478,周五收報31267,相對前周上各了152點,升幅0.5%,是連續第二周上升.國指在上周五最高見到12799,收報12735,按周上升1.6%,亦為連續第二周上升.

 

美股亦連升兩周,道指、納指和標準普爾500指數上周分別上升0.4%、0.6%和1.4%.聯儲局公布了1月份議息會議記錄,對美國經濟前前景更感樂觀,預計通脹率在一未來一年有望升至2%目標.市場擔心經濟走強會加快聯儲局的加息步伐,一度為債市和股市帶來沽壓,美國十年期國債孳息在上周三一度升至2.956%的四年高位.不過,聯儲局在上周五發表的半年度貨幣政策報告並未顯示聯儲局將加快加息步伐,令市場吁一口氣.不過,本周美國將有頗多經濟數據公布,包括新屋銷售、耐用品訂單、消費信心指數、第四季經濟增長、芝加哥採購經理指數、個人收入與開支、供應管理協會製造業指數及密歇根大學消費情緒指數等,如果數據較預期強勁,仍可能令債市和股市帶來波動.

 

受惠外圍股市回穩,加上國內春節電影票房及消費旅遊均表現理想,令A股在春節假期後亦顯著上揚,上證綜指、滬深300和深證成指周升幅都超過2%.

 

美股和A股走勢回穩,將對港股帶來支持.技術上,恆指從1月所見歷史高位33484回落,2月初最低跌至29129,期間出現了兩個下跌裂口.第二個下跌裂口(介乎30251和29679之間)已經補回,而第一個下跌裂口(介乎31712和31286之間)只補回一部分.經過兩周的回升,恆指已重返10天和50天線之上,但暫時仍受制於20天線阻力.該線現時已下降至31400水平,相信恆指應有力上破20天線,並有望補回2月6日的下跌裂口.

 

本人黃瑋傑為証監會持牌人士。截至本評論文章發表日止,本人及/或其有聯繫者並無持有全部提及之証券的所有相關財務權益.

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