Louis Wong Commentary

Author

黃瑋傑先生(Louis Wong)
輝立証券董事

見證過去三十多年香港股市每一個牛市和熊市,可謂實戰經驗豐富。現為香港多份財經報章雜誌專欄作家,並為電視台及電台擔任客席主持。個人著作有〈炒得精叻〉、〈投資先知〉及〈股市是平的〉,並獲『中金在線』選為『2010年最受歡迎的港股分析師』。
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回復下行態勢

Monday, September 3, 2018 Views6939

上周指出恆指由8月16日低位26871回升,已回升千多點,本周將考驗能否守住10天線之上,如10天線再次失守,短期反彈可能告一段落.恆指在上周初繼續回升態勢,上周二最高見到28580,之後反覆走軟,周五最低見到27720,收報27889,呈現先高後低走勢,但全周計數仍上升了217點,升幅0.8%.國指亦呈現先高後低走勢,上周二最高見到11190,周五最低跌至10781,收報10876,但按周仍上升0.9%.

 
A股方面,人民銀行重啟"逆周期因子",一度為A股帶來支持,因為在2017年5月逆周期因子橫空出世,遏制了人民幣的貶值態勢.自逆周期因子賴空出世以來,人民幣兌美元升值了近2600點.所以,逆周期因子在上周一重啟,令市場期望能再次扭轉人民幣弱勢.不過,今次逆周期因子重啟後,人民幣兌美元匯率只升值了兩日,之後連續三日調貶.若未來人民幣兌美元匯率繼續調貶,料會對A股帶來沽售壓力.經濟數據方面,8月份中國官方製造業和非製造業採購經理指數均比7月份有所回升,顯示製造業和非製造業總體保持平穩擴張態勢,但對股市沒有帶來太大刺激.
 
美股仍表現一枝獨秀,道指和標準普爾500指數連升三周,道指曾上越26000,最高見到26167,周五收報25964,按周上升0.7%;標普500指數和納指按周分別上升0.9%和2.1%.整個8月計數,道指、標普500和納指分別上升了2.2%、3%和5.7%;納指8月份升幅是自2000年以來最大月度升幅.美國經濟數據和公司業績表現理想是推動美股繼續上升的主要原因.
 
說回港股,恆指上周曾重越50天線但未能企穩其上,周五再次失守10天和20天線,相信短期反彈已告一段落,本周料將回復下行態勢,下試27200-27500的支持.
 


本人黃瑋傑為証監會持牌人士。截至本評論文章發表日止,本人及/或其有聯繫者並無持有全部提及之証券的所有相關財務權益.

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