Louis Wong Commentary

Author

黃瑋傑先生(Louis Wong)
輝立証券董事

見證過去三十多年香港股市每一個牛市和熊市,可謂實戰經驗豐富。現為香港多份財經報章雜誌專欄作家,並為電視台及電台擔任客席主持。個人著作有〈炒得精叻〉、〈投資先知〉及〈股市是平的〉,並獲『中金在線』選為『2010年最受歡迎的港股分析師』。
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RSI呈現底背馳

Monday, October 22, 2018 Views5275

上周原本預期恆指在前周創出25125的年內新低後,會展開一波反彈浪,但受外圍股市下跌拖累,恆指在上周五再創出25090的年內新低.可幸A股在上周五大幅反彈,帶動港股回升,恆指上周五收報25561,但按周仍下跌了240點,跌幅為0.9%,是連續第四周下跌.國指上周五最低見到10003,並未跌穿前周低位9976,收報10222,按周下跌約0.8%,也是連續第四周下跌.

 

美股上周呈現個別發展,道指按周上升0.4%,標準普爾500指數按周亦微升,結束連續四周的跌勢;但納指卻連跌三周,周跌幅為0.6%.雖然大部分企業季度業績都優於市場預期,為美股帶來支持,但利率持續趨升,令房屋市場受壓,9月份新屋動工不及預期,建屋許可更創出16個月新低.另一方面,9月份二手房屋銷售按月下跌3.4%,創出2015年11月以來的最低水平.

 

中國第三季度經濟增長6.5%,亦差於市場預期的6.6%增長率;首三季度固定資產投資及社會消費品零售總額增速皆有所回落.不過,一行二會負責人集體發聲力挺股市,令A股在上周五大幅反彈,但和前周比較,上證綜指、滬深300和深證成指仍分別下跌了2.1%、1.1%和2.3%.若宏觀經濟繼續走弱,單靠管理層的喊話支持,是否能令A股擺脫弱勢,仍屬未知之數.

 

說回港股,恆指上周雖跌穿前周低位再創年內新低,但9天相對強弱指數並未跌穿10月11日低位,呈現背馳.若本周外圍股市表現回穩,港股有望作出反彈,初步目標25800.若能突破25800並企穩其上,將有望補回10月11日的下跌裂口.該下跌裂口闊755點,介於26193和25438之間,目前尚差357點未補回.


本人黃瑋傑為証監會持牌人士。截至本評論文章發表日止,本人及/或其有聯繫者並無持有全部提及之証券的所有相關財務權益.

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