Louis Wong Commentary

Author

黃瑋傑先生(Louis Wong)
輝立証券董事

見證過去三十多年香港股市每一個牛市和熊市,可謂實戰經驗豐富。現為香港多份財經報章雜誌專欄作家,並為電視台及電台擔任客席主持。個人著作有〈炒得精叻〉、〈投資先知〉及〈股市是平的〉,並獲『中金在線』選為『2010年最受歡迎的港股分析師』。
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回補下跌裂口

Monday, June 8, 2020 Views1997
上周評論指出,港股技術走勢仍然偏淡,除非恆指能升穿23500並企穩其上,才可扭轉淡勢.結果,恆指在上周一大幅高開,以裂口升穿23500,之後持續上揚,上周五最高見到24810,收報24770,相對前周上升了1809點,升幅達7.9%,是連續第二周上升.國指重越10000大關,上周五最高見到10082,收報10066,按周上升5.3%,也是連續第二周上升.
 
A股上周亦顯著上揚,上證綜指重越2900,上周五收報2930,按周上升2.7%;滬深300和深證成指按周分別上升3.5%和4%.5月份財新中國製造業和服務業採購經理指數雙雙重返擴張區間.其中,5月份財新中國通用服務業務經營指數錄得55,較4月份上升10.6個百分點,是自今年2月以來首次重回擴張區間,也是2010年11月以來最高,顯示服務業從疫情中加快恢復.另一方面,人民幣匯價止跌回升,亦對A股帶來支持.離岸和在岸人民匯率已收復5月下旬失地,離岸人民幣匯率更創出近一個月新高.
 
美股方面,道指納指和標準普爾500指數上周分別上升6.8%3.3%和4.9%,雖然納指周升幅遜於道指和標普500指數,卻再創歷史新高.美國5月份非農業職位增加250萬份,失業率降至13.3%,都優於市場預期,為美股帶來利好刺激.不過,其後美國勞工部發布的每月就業報告顯示,由於"分層抽樣"錯誤和數據收集錯誤等原因,此前的數據可能將失業率低估了3.1個百分點,這意味"正確"的5月份失業率將達到16.4%,比4月份的失業率還要高.不過,勞工部在報告中也指出,4月份數據統計中也出現過同樣的錯誤,因此修正後的4月份失業率可能接近20%.
 
說回港股,現時恆指不但升穿了23500,同時亦收復了10天20天和50天線,如能進一步升破自4月開始形成的大型長方形頂部阻力24850並企穩其上,下一步可望挑戰100天線阻力(該線現時處於25200附近),並嘗試補回3月份尚未補回的兩個下跌裂口.其中一個下跌裂口闊482點,介於25140和24658之間,目前已補回一部分.另一個下跌裂口闊763點,介於26084和25321之間,之前只補回了258點.


本人黃瑋傑為証監會持牌人士。截至本評論文章發表日止,本人及/或其有聯繫者並無持有全部提及之証券的所有相關財務權益.

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