Louis Wong Commentary

Author

黃瑋傑先生(Louis Wong)
輝立証券董事

見證過去三十多年香港股市每一個牛市和熊市,可謂實戰經驗豐富。現為香港多份財經報章雜誌專欄作家,並為電視台及電台擔任客席主持。個人著作有〈炒得精叻〉、〈投資先知〉及〈股市是平的〉,並獲『中金在線』選為『2010年最受歡迎的港股分析師』。
Phone:
2277 6666

留意20天線是否確認失守

Monday, February 6, 2023 Views1618

上周評論指出,從技術走勢看,恆指仍具上升動力,有望挑戰22900-23000,但仍看A股春節假後表現和聯儲局的議息決定和會後聲明.A股復市後,北水減持港股,為港股帶來沽壓.上周北水淨流出174.84億元,是一年半以來淨沽出最多的一個星期.恆指在上周五最低見到21460,收報21660,相對前周下跌了1029點,跌幅4.5%,結束了連續六周的升勢.國指上周下跌5.2%,亦結束了連續六周的升勢.科指結束了連續五周的升勢,周跌幅為3.7%.

A股在春節假期後呈現盤整態勢,相對春節假期前收艋,上證綜指微跌1點,滬深300下跌接近1%,而深證成指則上升0.6%.經濟數據方面,1月份官方製造業採購經理指數(PMI)升至50.1%,重返擴張區間,為2022年下半年以來最高;非制造業商務活動指數為54.4%,比上月上升12.8個百分點,亦重返擴張區間.1月份財新中國製造業PMI回升至49.2,走勢與官方製造業PMI一致,不過仍然處於收縮區間;1月份財新中國服務業PMI錄得52.9,為五個月以首次重返擴張區間,反映隨著防疫控制放寬,企業經營信心明顯增強,企業樂觀度升至2011年2月後最高.

美股上周呈現先升後回的態勢,聯儲局一如預期加息四分一厘,會後聲明不鷹不鴿,但上周五公布的就業數據顯示,1月份非農職位增加51.7萬份,遠超市場預期的18.5萬份,創出2022年7月以來新高;失業率從3.5%降至3.4%,低於市場預期的3.6%,創53年新低. 就業數據表現強勁,令市場擔心聯儲局會加大升息幅度,為美股帶來不確定性.道指按周下跌0.15%,但標準普爾500指數和納指按周仍分別上升1.6%和3.3%.

說回港股,恆指上周跌穿10天和20天線,顯示市況進入調整階段.回顧去年11月和12月的調整都偏向短暫,跌至20天線便掉頭回升.這一次,如果20天線確認失守,可能進一步調整,或將下試21000,甚或補回1月5日的上升裂口,該上升裂口介於20793和20962之間,尚有70點未完全補回.


本人黃瑋傑為証監會持牌人士。截至本評論文章發表日止,本人及/或其有聯繫者並無持有全部提及之証券的所有相關財務權益.

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