Louis Wong Commentary

Author

黃瑋傑先生(Louis Wong)
輝立証券董事

見證過去三十多年香港股市每一個牛市和熊市,可謂實戰經驗豐富。現為香港多份財經報章雜誌專欄作家,並為電視台及電台擔任客席主持。個人著作有〈炒得精叻〉、〈投資先知〉及〈股市是平的〉,並獲『中金在線』選為『2010年最受歡迎的港股分析師』。
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首次下試100天線料有反彈

Monday, March 13, 2023 Views1762

上周指出恆指由前周低位19783回升,應屬技術性反彈,可望上試20天線甚或50天線.結果恆指在上周二最高見到21006,一度升穿20天線和50天線.可惜升勢只是曇花一現,之後連跌三日,周五最低見到19282,收報19320,相對前周下跌了1248點,跌幅超6%.國指按周分別下跌7.1%和10.2%.滬深股市方面,上證綜指和深證成指按周分別下跌2.9%和3.5%.上周公布的中國經濟數據低於市場預期,為股市帶來沽壓.據海關總署公布,1至2月進出口總值以美元計算同比下跌8.3%,是連續第四個月呈現下跌.其中,出口減少6.8%,進口跌幅更大於出口,達10.2%,反映全球經濟放緩和國內需求疲軟.另一方面,中國2月份居民消費價格指數(CPI)同比僅上升1%,低於市場預期的1.9%,更創出去年2月以來的新低,反映國內需求疲軟的狀況持續.2月份生產者價格指數(PPI)同比下降1.4%,是連續第五個月下降,而且降幅連續第二個月擴大.

美股方面,上周三大指數跌幅都超過4%.聯儲局主席鮑威爾在國會作證時言論偏鷹,令市場憂慮今月加息幅度可能達到0.5%,二年期國債孳息一度升越5%,而十年期國債孳息率則升近4%.上周五公布的就業數據令市場加息憂慮略為紓緩,其中,2月份非農職位增加31.1萬份,多於市場預期的20.5萬份,但失業率由3.4%上升至3.6%,高於市場預期的3.5%;平均時薪同比上漲4.6%,低於預期的4.7%.不過卻爆出矽谷銀行資不抵債被勒令關閉的利淡消息,為美股特別是地區性銀行股帶來衝擊.

說回港股,恆指250天線終告失守,上周五逼近100天線,以及去年12月22日的上升裂口.這是恆指自去年11月底升穿100天線後再回試100天線,像之前下試250天線一樣,第一次下試100天線,料會見到支持而作出反彈,先前低位19800將成為回升阻力位.


本人黃瑋傑為証監會持牌人士。截至本評論文章發表日止,本人及/或其有聯繫者並無持有全部提及之証券的所有相關財務權益.

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