Louis Wong Commentary

Author

黃瑋傑先生(Louis Wong)
輝立証券董事

見證過去三十多年香港股市每一個牛市和熊市,可謂實戰經驗豐富。現為香港多份財經報章雜誌專欄作家,並為電視台及電台擔任客席主持。個人著作有〈炒得精叻〉、〈投資先知〉及〈股市是平的〉,並獲『中金在線』選為『2010年最受歡迎的港股分析師』。
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雙底回升還是雙底反彈?

Monday, September 25, 2023 Views2521

恆指在8月22日見到17574低位後掉頭回升,但筆者一直認為回升只屬反彈,而且預期恆指在完成反彈後會再下試甚或下破8月低位17574.結果恆指在上周五最低見到17574,然後大幅反彈超過四百點,重越18000,收報18057,但相對前周仍下跌126點,跌幅0.7%,是連續第三周下跌.國指和科指亦連跌三周,周跌幅分別為0.7%和2.1%.滬深股市上周五亦大幅反彈,上證綜指和深證成指按周分別上升0.5%和0.3%.消息面方面,廣州限購放鬆,成中國首個調整限購的一線城市,令市場憧憬其他一線城市亦會跟隨放鬆限購.另一方面,市場監管總局印發<<市場監管部門促進民營經濟發展的若干舉措>>,包括加強政策供給及降低企業經營負擔,亦被視為利好因素.

美股市面,聯儲局議息會議一如預期維持利率不變,但鮑威爾言論偏鷹.他表示適當時間會進一步加息,並打算將維持限制性政策,直至有信心通脹降至2%的目標水平.聯儲局點陣圖亦顯示,今年仍有1次加息0.25厘的機會,明年將減息0.5厘,但減幅低過6月時預測的1厘.美國國債孳息本周大幅上揚,二年期國債孳息曾高見5.1厘,而十年期國債孳息一度升穿4.5厘,為股市特別是科技股帶來沽壓,道指按周下跌1.9%,標準普爾500和納指更錄得自今年3月以來的最大單周跌幅,分別下跌了2.9%和3.6%.

說回港股,現在一個關鍵問題是:恆指在17574形成雙底,究竟是雙底回升,還是只不過是雙底反彈,在完成反彈後將跌破17574繼續下行?如果只是反彈,恆指從9月4日高位18899下跌至17574,共下跌了1325點.若反彈跌幅的0.382,將回升至18080,與上周五高位18079非常接近.若反彈跌幅的一半,將見18236;若反彈跌幅的0.618,將見18392,同時可突破9月15日高位18373.所以,恆指須升越18392並企穩其上,才能確認是反轉而不是反彈格局;而要確認雙底形態成立,則更要升越9月4日高位亦即雙底頸線阻力18899.


本人黃瑋傑為証監會持牌人士。截至本評論文章發表日止,本人及/或其有聯繫者並無持有全部提及之証券的所有相關財務權益.

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