Louis Wong Commentary

Author

黃瑋傑先生(Louis Wong)
輝立証券董事

見證過去三十多年香港股市每一個牛市和熊市,可謂實戰經驗豐富。現為香港多份財經報章雜誌專欄作家,並為電視台及電台擔任客席主持。個人著作有〈炒得精叻〉、〈投資先知〉及〈股市是平的〉,並獲『中金在線』選為『2010年最受歡迎的港股分析師』。
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上破24000屬虛火上升?

Monday, September 26, 2016 Views2160

上周蕪文預期,港股將繼續調整,若恆指20天線確認失守,可能下試23000的支持,結果看錯了.港股上周止跌回升,恆指在上周四更一度重越24000,最高見到24508,主要由於美國聯邦儲備局一如預期維持利率不變,加上日本央行引入新QQE政策,為環球股市帶來利好刺激.不過,恆指未能企穩24000以

上,周五收報23686,但對比前周仍上升了350點,升幅約1.5%.國指在上周四曾上破1萬大關,最高見到10089,但同樣未能企穩其上,周五收報9796,周升幅約2.1%.

 

美股道指在上周四最高見到18449,周五收報18261,按周上升0.8%;納指突破5300,再創出5342的歷史新高,周五收報5305,周升幅達1.2%.至於標普500指數,按周亦上升1.2%.上周公布的美國經濟數據如新屋動工及建屋許可、二手房屋銷售、經濟領先指標都差於市場預期,但最新一周新申領失業救濟金人數降至25.2萬人,為兩個月低位,顯示美國勞工市場仍表現穩健.今周美國將有頗多經濟數據公布,包括新屋銷售Case-Shiller房屋市場指數消費信心耐用品訂單第二季經濟增長修訂值成屋待完成銷售個人收入及個人開支芝加哥採購經理指數密歇根大學消費情緒指數等.

 

另外,美股上周升勢亦受到油價反彈的支持,因市場憧憬油組及非油組成員今月底在阿爾及利亞召開的會議可能達成凍產決定,利好油價.但阿聯酋能源部長表示,會議目標並非為達成協議,而是作為諮詢,令油價在上周五顯著回調,拖累美股上周五回跌.

 

A股在中秋節假期後走勢有所改善,上證綜指在上周四最高見到3054,周五收報3033,按周上周1%;滬深300和深證成指則分別上升1.1%和1.5%.中國人民銀行上周進行了共計9500億元逆回購操作,除去周內共計2800億元逆回購到期,累計淨投放6700億元,創4月22日當周以來最大單周淨投放,保持國慶節前後資金面平穩.

 

說回港股,恆指再上破24000但未能企穩其上,而且出現連續兩支陰燭,顯示上升動力不足,未來可能再考試10天線的支持.該線現時處於23530水平,如再度失守,則顯示上周四上破24000,只屬虛火上升.


本人黃瑋傑為証監會持牌人士。截至本評論文章發表日止,本人及/或其有聯繫者並無持有全部提及之証券的所有相關財務權益.

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