Louis Wong Commentary

Author

黃瑋傑先生(Louis Wong)
輝立証券董事

見證過去三十多年香港股市每一個牛市和熊市,可謂實戰經驗豐富。現為香港多份財經報章雜誌專欄作家,並為電視台及電台擔任客席主持。個人著作有〈炒得精叻〉、〈投資先知〉及〈股市是平的〉,並獲『中金在線』選為『2010年最受歡迎的港股分析師』。
Phone:
2277 6666

留意能否突破23076關鍵位

Monday, January 16, 2017 Views2517

上周指出如恆指確認企穩50天線,應有望繼續反彈,上試100天線阻力.結果上周港股繼續上揚,恆指最高見到22971,逼近23000,上周五收報22937,重越100天線,相對前周上升了434點,升幅1.9%,是連續第三周上升.國指上周五最高回升見9809,收報9787,按周上升了1.8%,也是連續第三周上升.

 

美股上周表現較為反覆,道瓊斯工業平均指數仍無法突破23000,上周五收報19885,按周下跌0.4%.不過,納指卻呈現強勢,收市指數在過去七個交易日當中有六個交易日創出歷史新高,上周五收報5574,按周上升了1%.美國候任總統特朗普在上周三召開了備受關注的首次新聞發布會,其談話未涉及減稅及基建,令市場略感失望.另外,上周有多名聯儲局官員發表談話,都偏向鷹派.其中,聯儲局主席耶倫表示,美國經濟沒有嚴重短期障礙,通脹率接近聯儲局的2%目標,勞工市場亦已接近金融危機前水平,並稱經濟現正處於低利率環境,而這個環境在經濟遇到負面衝擊時會產生問題,市場對其言論解讀為日後加息鋪路.

 

美國本周將有多個經濟數據公布,包括紐約州製造業指數消費物價指數工業生產及設備使用率NAHB房屋市場指數聯儲局褐皮書新屋動工及建屋許可費城聯儲製造業指數.另一方面,業績公布期已展開,暫時以摩根大通及美銀美林為首的大型銀行股的季度業績都表現理想.

 

相對港股和美股,A股上周斯人獨憔悴,上證綜指再次跌近3100,上周五收報3112,按周下跌了1.65%;滬深300和深證成指分別下跌0.8%和2.7%.中國12月份出口按美元計同比下跌6.1%,較預期的4%跌幅為大,而11月份出口亦由增長0.1%修訂為下跌1.6%;12月份進口同比上升3.1%,略高於預期的3%增幅,但11月份進口增幅由6.7%向下修訂為4.7%.中國對外貿易仍面對眾多不明朗因素,下行壓力繼續加大.

 

說回港股,恆指由去年12月低位21492回升,已回升了接近1500點,目前逼近去年12月8日的反彈高點23076.如能突破23076,將扭轉自去年9月高位24364回落以來一浪低一浪的走勢,有望繼續回升並上試23500.但若未能突破23076,則可能形成雙頂.所以,能否突破23076,對後市走勢頗為關鍵.


本人黃瑋傑為証監會持牌人士。截至本評論文章發表日止,本人及/或其有聯繫者並無持有全部提及之証券的所有相關財務權益.

This report is produced and is being distributed in Hong Kong by Phillip Securities Group with the Securities and Futures Commission (“SFC”) licence under Phillip Securities (HK) LTD and/ or Phillip Commodities (HK) LTD (“Phillip”). Information contained herein is based on sources that Phillip believed to be accurate. Phillip does not bear responsibility for any loss occasioned by reliance placed upon the contents hereof. The information is for informative purposes only and is not intended to or create/induce the creation of any binding legal relations. The information provided do not constitute investment advice, solicitation, purchase or sell any investment product(s). Investments are subject to investment risks including possible loss of the principal amount invested. You should refer to your Financial Advisor for investment advice based on your investment experience, financial situation, any of your particular needs and risk preference. For details of different product's risks, please visit the Risk Disclosures Statement on http://www.phillip.com.hk. Phillip (or employees) may have positions/ interests in relevant investment products. Phillip (or one of its affiliates) may from time to time provide services for, or solicit services or other business from, any company mentioned in this report. The above information is owned by Phillip and protected by copyright and intellectual property Laws. It may not be reproduced, distributed or published for any purpose without prior written consent from Phillip.
Top of Page
Contact Us
Please contact your account executive or call us now.
Research Department
Tel : (852) 2277 6846
Fax : (852) 2277 6565
Email : businessenquiry@phillip.com.hk

Enquiry & Support
Branches
The Complaint Procedures
About Us
Phillip Securities Group
Join Us
Phillip Network
Phillip Post
Phillip Channel
Latest Promotion
E-Check
Login
Investor Notes
Free Subscribe
Contact Us