Louis Wong Commentary

Author

黃瑋傑先生(Louis Wong)
輝立証券董事

見證過去三十多年香港股市每一個牛市和熊市,可謂實戰經驗豐富。現為香港多份財經報章雜誌專欄作家,並為電視台及電台擔任客席主持。個人著作有〈炒得精叻〉、〈投資先知〉及〈股市是平的〉,並獲『中金在線』選為『2010年最受歡迎的港股分析師』。
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短期超買先作整固

Monday, February 20, 2017 Views2152

上周指出國企指數逼近去年9月高位10210,看走勢應可率先突破去年高位.結果不負所望,國指上周成功突破10210,最高見到10544,周五收報10360,按周上升了2.3%,是連續第二周上升.恆指亦連升兩周,上周四最高見到24161,為去年9月9日以來的最高位,周五收報24034,按周上升了459點,升幅接近2%.

 

美股方面,道瓊斯工業平均指數連續七日創收市新高,上周五收報20624,按周上升了1.8%;標準普爾500指數和納指則分別上升1.5%和1.8%.上周公布的美國經濟數據,大部分都優於市場預期,包括零售銷售紐約州及費城聯儲製造業指數,以及經濟領先指標等.另一方面,消費物價指數及生產物價指數均高於市場預期,分別創出自2013年2月及2012年9月以來最大升幅,顯示通脹升溫,促使聯儲局主席耶倫言論轉鷹派,提振市場加息預期,但對美股無大影響.

 

A股亦反覆回升,上證綜指上周五收報3229,按周上升了6點;滬深300收報3421,按周上升了8點;深證成指收報10197,周升幅為0.7%.中國1月份進出口總值同比增長19.6%,其中,出口增長15.9%,進口增長25.2%,大幅高於市場預期.另外,1月份外貿出口先導指數較12月份回升1.6至39,初步預示今年第二季度中國出口壓力有望緩解.

 

1月份人民幣新增貸款2.03萬億元,低於去年同期的2.51萬億元,也低於市場預期的2.3萬億元,但值得注意的是,企業中長期貸款新增1.52萬億,佔全部貸款的74%,反映隨著經濟築底回穩,企業部門信貸需求轉趨旺盛.此外,1月份社會融資規模創出歷史新高,增量為3.74億元,分別比上月和去年同期多2.1萬億元和2619億元,反映實體經濟及民間融資需求復甦並較去年旺盛.

 

說回港股,恆指連升兩周,技術指標呈現超買,預計短期將作出消化整固,考驗企穩24000.若未能企穩24000,則可能先行回補23735和23771之間的上升裂口,再圖挑戰去年9月高位24364.


本人黃瑋傑為証監會持牌人士。截至本評論文章發表日止,本人及/或其有聯繫者並無持有全部提及之証券的所有相關財務權益.

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