Louis Wong Commentary

Author

黃瑋傑先生(Louis Wong)
輝立証券董事

見證過去三十多年香港股市每一個牛市和熊市,可謂實戰經驗豐富。現為香港多份財經報章雜誌專欄作家,並為電視台及電台擔任客席主持。個人著作有〈炒得精叻〉、〈投資先知〉及〈股市是平的〉,並獲『中金在線』選為『2010年最受歡迎的港股分析師』。
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調整或已接近尾聲

Monday, April 10, 2017 Views4226

雄安概念橫空出世,令港股在清明節假期後顯著高開,恆指在上周三最高見到24401,但升勢未能持續,周五更因為美國發射導彈軍事打擊叙利亞而急跌,一度失守24000,見到23982的全周低位.不過,低位見到買盤承托,恆指上周五收報24267,相對前周上升了155點,升幅約0.6%.國指上周最低見到10148,周五收報10274,與前周持平.

 

美股上周亦表現反覆,特別是上周三,當日聯儲局發布3月議息會議記錄,道指日中振幅超過200點,由最多上升198點變為收市下跌41點,之後上升乏力.全周計數,道指下跌了0.1%,而標準普爾500指數和納指則分別下跌0.3%和0.6%.數據方面,供應管理協會製造業指數和ADP就業數據都優於預期,但非農數據卻遠低於預期,3月份新增職位只有9.8萬份,創2016年5月以來最低水平,但並未對美股帶來太大負面影響,因市場認為數據是受到3月份的嚴寒冰凍天氣影響,而且就業數據差於預期,亦可能改變聯儲局的鷹派立場,對股市有利.

 

A股方面,反而呈現靠穩態勢,上證綜指逐步逼近3300,上周五最高見到3295,收報3286.而滬深300則突破了3500,上周五收報3517.中國3月份外匯儲備為30090.9億美元,比2月份增加39.64億元,為自去年4月以來首次連續兩個月上升,反映隨著中央出台多種遏抑走資的政策,加上人民幣匯價回穩,令內地走資壓力得以緩解,對股市起到穩定作用.

 

3月份財新中國綜合產出指數從2月份的52.6降至52.1,主要受製造業和服務業PMI雙雙回落影響,顯示中國經濟增長略見放緩,但對A股沒有帶來太大影響.3月份主要宏觀經濟數據將於本周起陸續公布,市場預期首季GDP增長率將維持6.8%左右,中國經濟仍屬穩中有進格局.

 

說回港股,恆指上周五曾下破20天線,並補回3月16日的上升裂口的一部分,該上升裂口闊161點,介於23843和24004之間.恆指從3月21日的年內高位24657回落,上周最低跌至23982,下跌了675點,可視為溫和調整,而調整已歷時三個星期.恆指陰陽燭日線圖在上周五出現了一個錘頭,而且收市指數仍守住20天線之上,加上9RSI開始呈現背馳,相信這一浪調整或已接近尾聲.

 

本人黃瑋傑為証監會持牌人士。截至本評論文章發表日止,本人及/或其有聯繫者並無持有全部提及之証券的所有相關財務權益.

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