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吳袓同先生(JordanWood)
輝立証券及期貨市場經理

吳祖同現任本公司高級業務及市場經理, 策略師, 從事証券及恆指期貨交易已有二十多年,尤其在技術分析方面經驗豐富。自2002年開始每週在本欄發表期指走勢技術分析, 廣受客戶和讀者歡迎。
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期指走勢技術分析 15 July 2019

Monday, July 15, 2019 Views879

上週期指開28623,高位28641,低位28091週二見到,週五收市報28539,比前周下跌241點,相比之前周線圖連升五周,累計上升2063點,上周跌幅微不足道,周線圖陰陽燭呈錘頭形態。十八周STC的18K%報54.89,5D%報43.64,未來幾周若見5D%向上升穿50,中期向上的趨勢將更為肯定。九周RSI已連續四周站在50以上,上週報54.67。


期指日線圖上,上週二收市在28103,當天20sma在28123,好在跌破20sma僅一天,週三已重返其上,目前下方比較重要的支持要看50sma,上週五在27976,上方比較重要的阻力要看10sma,今日臨界點在28572。上週一的下跌裂口28780-28641仍有很大的阻力,高一級阻力在29000-29200。隨機指數的18K%報66.95,5D%報70.07,雖然18K%處在5D%以下,但5D%還沒有低於50,不算太淡。週期比較短的9STC,上週五9K%已向上升穿3D%,發出買入信號。

 

 

Ichimoku日線圖上,上週一、二、三收市價跌入雲頂以下,週四週五重返雲層以上,本週五天雲頂位置都在28421,雲底遠在27310。

 

注意到上週四開始250sma已在27558轉跌為升,是去年八月底該線轉升為跌以來第一次,是技術上確認牛市已誕生的三個條件中的第三個信號,第一個信號是指數升穿250sma,第二個信號是50sma升穿250sma,是今年3月22日見到的。理論上只要後市不再跌破去年十月低位24526,目前已經處在牛市,而牛市誕生的時間位置分別是去年十月尾的24526。因此可以將[2]浪終點定在24526。


波浪分析,上周認為26505向上到29080走完了一組[a]-[b]-[c]浪,上周並猜測,自29080開始向右,可能是一組橫行的[a]-[b]-[c]浪,經過一周的變化,這個猜測還不需要改變,上週二低位28091可能已是[a]浪終點,目前處在[b]浪反彈中,從半小時圖上看,自28091升到上週四的28614可能已走完了[b]-(a)浪,不確定28363是否已走完了[b]-(b)浪,本周向上走完[b]-(c)浪的機會大,然後再跌一次是[c]浪下跌。


以上純屬個人意見,不構成買賣邀請,本人吳祖同為證監會持牌人,本人及本人之客戶會隨時買賣上述分析之相關產品。

 

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